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Monday 30 October, 2000
More than 120 international scientists from 17 countries attended the World Climate Research Programme workshops, which were hosted by Australia's Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC).
The workshops were aimed at examining and improving climate models - computer programs designed to simulate actual weather systems and thus allow their behavior to be projected into the future. These models underpin much of the science of climate change.
Dr Kamal Puri, leader of the BMRC's model development group, said there had been vast improvements in the accuracy and complexity of weather and climate models since the last such international workshop 12 years ago. "The sophistication of climate models has increased dramatically in that time, providing the scientific community with more certainty about how increasing temperatures may affect the world's climate and other systems," Dr Puri said.
Dr Karl Taylor of the United States Department of Energy has been working on an international program that evaluates the performance of climate models developed in 30 independent laboratories around the world. "I'm delighted with the improvements shown in many of the atmospheric models developed by these different climate and weather forecast centers," Dr Taylor said. "These models are increasing our understanding of climate change and are providing a foundation on which USA Government policy may eventually be based."
Australian Dr Bryant McAvaney, lead author of a chapter on model evaluation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report, said many of the international experts at the workshop had provided information on their models to the report, which is due out early next year. "Climate models have improved to the extent that they are now able to represent many features of the climate system, such as El Ni¤o and monsoons," Dr McAvaney said.
Dr Puri, who is also the chairman of the international working group on numerical experimentation, said the workshops had been extremely useful in ensuring research groups around the globe were working together to advance the science of climate modelling.
While the accuracy of climate models is impressive and increasing, the models still do not capture all the features of the real climate system because it is difficult to fully simulate the complexity of the real world climate system and build in extreme weather events such as heavy rainfalls and cyclones.
"As computers become even more powerful and scientists learn more about the climate system, these models will be further expanded and refined so they produce evermore- accurate predictions," Dr Puri said. "The workshops have also helped raise the profile of science in Australia, which, for a relatively small country, is making many very important contributions to weather and climate research."
Ends
Further information:
Dr Mike Manton, Chief, Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre,
tel: (03) 9669 4444, mobile: 0419 389 795, e-mail: m.manton@bom.gov.au
Dr Bryant McAvaney, Leader, Model Evaluation Group, Bureau of Meteorology Research
Centre,
tel: (03) 9669 4134, mobile: 0407 866 310, e-mail: b.mcavaney@bom.gov.au
Web links:
www.bom.gov.au/bmrc and www.csiro.au
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