Monday 4 September 2006

MEDIA RELEASE

Driest August on record and not much relief in sight

Director of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Dr Geoff Love today announced that a number of areas of Australia, including in the vital catchments of both Perth and Melbourne, are reporting the most severe short-term rainfall deficiencies on record.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, August 2006 was the driest August in the historical record from 1900, based on the average rainfall across Australia. The total area that was already deficient in autumn/winter rainfall at the beginning of the month has expanded substantially, especially over southern Australia. There have been record low winter falls recorded over a large part of southern Western Australia and parts of eastern Australia. Deficits dating from the start of autumn also intensified across the south-east, including Tasmania.

These short-term rainfall deficiencies further exacerbate the very protracted dry period that most of southern Australia has experienced since late 1996, and eastern Australia since 2002. This is highlighted in the Bureau’s official Drought Statement, released today (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml).

“Water storages are already severely stressed and many areas have not had substantial relief rainfall for many years,” said Dr Love. In addition, most of these same areas have experienced persistent high temperatures. Dr Love emphasised that, “if the current low rainfall and high temperatures persist, the consequences will be wide ranging, including an elevated bushfire risk this coming summer and escalating water shortages and restrictions.”

In light of the Bureau of Meteorology Seasonal Outlook, released on Wednesday 23 August, relieving rainfalls over the next few months do not look promising. The US Climate Prediction Centre recently increased its estimate of the chance of an El Niño to about 50 per cent. While the Bureau of Meteorology confirms that there is a continuing shift of conditions towards an El Niño event, at present most climate models predict the continuation of near neutral conditions.

Dr Love said, “Regardless of whether the current conditions develop fully into an El Niño ‘event’ or fall just short, the current warm ocean temperatures in the Pacific mean that the odds of good rainfall over Australia in late winter/spring are reduced, and that the above-average temperatures already being observed are likely to continue.”

Media contact:
Dr Michael Coughlan, National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology
tel: (03) 9669 4086 (work), 0419 411 225 (mobile)

Ends