Thursday, 4 October 2007

MEDIA RELEASE

Is the recent drought evidence of climate change?

Many parts of Australia are in the grip of a protracted drought — but is it evidence of climate change?

Researchers from the Bureau of Meteorology have been exploring the connection between the drought and climate change in research presented at the GREENHOUSE 2007 conference in Sydney.

"We've had three of the warmest years on record in the past five years, combined with an exceptionally dry decade, in southern and eastern Australia. The temperature patterns certainly fit with the pattern of global warming; however the rainfall signal is less clear" said Dr Mike Coughlan, head of the Burea's National Climate Centre.

"The observed trend in recent years to lower rainfall across much of southern Australia does show some level of consistency with climate projections that foreshadow general drying across southern Australia."

"The combination of low rainfall and record high temperatures over southeast Australia for the past two severe drought years (2002 & 2006) is without precedent in the past 100 years."

"Low rainfall combined with record high temperatures leads to increased evaporation and less available water — it's a double-edged setback for water storages and bushfire risk."

"Rainfall will continue to vary due to natural influences, as it may well do due to human influences." said Dr Coughlan. "This past decade of low rainfall, together with record warm temperatures is perhaps giving us a preview of our future climate."

Figure 1. Mean annual rainfall (bars) and maximum temperature anomaly (line) for the Murray Darling Basin, 1910-2006