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Monday, 15 October 2007 MEDIA RELEASE Prepare now for cyclone seasonCommunities in northern Australia are being urged to begin preparations for the coming tropical cyclone season which is shaping up to be busier than last. Bureau of Meteorology senior cyclone meteorologist, Joe Courtney said there is the potential for an average or slightly above average number of cyclones in Australian waters this season. On average there are three cyclones in the Coral Sea, two to three off the Northern Territory coast and five off the Northwest coast each year. Seasonal cyclone activity is influenced by ocean-atmosphere patterns which have moved into a La Niña phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Typically, La Niña conditions lead to an early start to a busier than normal cyclone season. However, Mr Courtney said there are other climate indicators that make the outlook less certain. While there has been the trademark La Niña cooling of waters in the eastern Pacific, waters off northern Australia are yet to warm as expected and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) - the daily difference in atmospheric conditions between Darwin and Tahiti - is yet to reach values typical of La Niña. Mr Courtney said “if seas to our north and west warm to more typical La Niña levels, this would increase the potential for earlier and more frequent tropical cyclone development, so people need to be fully prepared right from the start of November.” Cyclone numbers have been below average since the last La Niña years of 1999/2000 and 1998/99 despite the occurrence of severe cyclones since then, including George (WA, 2007), Larry (Qld, 2006), Monica (NT, 2006), and Ingrid (Top End, 2005). “You just have to think back to last summer,” said Mr Courtney. “It was quiet in terms of the number of cyclones that formed, but look at the devastating impact, Tropical Cyclone George had around Port Hedland in Western Australia. There is never a season when you can let your guard down.” It is essential that people heed the messages of the pre-season disaster mitigation campaigns being conducted by the Bureau and State and Territory Emergency Services to be cyclone aware and prepared. New tropical cyclone web page Coinciding with the outlook the Bureau today launched its national Tropical Cyclone web page, improving access to cyclone warnings and information, available at:
www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone
For weekly updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso Further enquires: Media assistance: Ends |