24 November 2008

MEDIA RELEASE

Technology targets bleaching on Great Barrier Reef

Climate forecasts have the potential to assist in the monitoring and management of coral bleaching events on reefs, according to new research published in the journal Coral Reefs.

Global warming is potentially a serious threat to the future of coral reefs, including Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, with scientists predicting that bleaching will increase in both frequency and severity as the climate warms. Coral bleaching is most often triggered by high sea surface temperatures (SST) which are more likely to occur with global warming. Bleaching has been observed on the Great Barrier Reef since 1982, with severe bleaching events occurring in the summers of 1998 and 2002.

According to one of the authors of the new research - Dr Claire Spillman from the Bureau of Meteorology - computer forecasts are a potential new tool that can be used to assist reef authorities to better manage the impacts of coral bleaching.

“Seasonal forecasts from coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to predict anomalous SST months in advance. While forecasts of tropical Pacific SSTs have been routinely produced by forecast models since 2002, this research shows that these same models can also be used for the prediction of regional SST over smaller areas such as the Great Barrier Reef”, Dr Spillman said.

“Bleaching itself cannot currently be prevented, but by focussing management efforts on areas of the reef under threat and decreasing other stresses, recovery times and reef resilience to bleaching can be improved.”

Researchers from the Bureau of Meteorology assessed the skill of the Bureau’s seasonal coupled ocean-atmosphere model, called POAMA, in forecasting SSTs over the Great Barrier Reef up to 6 months in advance. They found that the model has significant skill in such predictions for up to three months ahead – a useful time frame for reef managers. It is expected that future improvements in the model will lead to increased skill with longer lead times. Bureau scientists are also looking at applying the model to other reef systems.

“This experiment was the first time that a dynamical seasonal coupled model has been applied to the problem of coral bleaching with the explicit aim of predicting SST anomalies a season in advance,” Dr Spillman said.

“These first results look promising. Further research will better determine the true effectiveness of POAMA as a tool in the future management of coral reefs.”

Contacts for further information:
Dr Claire Spillman (03 9669 8105) or Dr Oscar Alves (03 9669 4835), Bureau of Meteorology

Ends