2002/2003 Tropical Cyclone Season - "First Cyclone Likely to be Late"

The first cyclone near the Northern Territory is likely to be late this season, according to the Bureau of Meteorology in Darwin. This is due to the El Niño conditions which have become established during 2002. The first cyclone may be seen around Christmas, but is more likely to be late in January. Nevertheless, the risk of a cyclone is present at any time in the cyclone season, which starts on 1 November and runs to the end of April. People in coastal areas should now be preparing for the season.

With an El Niño event the likelihood is that there will be slow start to the rainy season. However, more rain in the new year could make up the shortfall. The Bureau's National Climate Centre estimates there is a 55 to 60% chance that the total rainfall from November until the end of January will be above average for the Top End, despite the probable slow start to the wet season rains.

The focus of cyclone formation is expected to be in the Gulf of Carpentaria during January to March. However a cyclone forming in the Gulf could subsequently move across the Top End and reform in the Timor Sea, threatening communities in the west.

If El Niño conditions persist further into 2003, a cyclone may occur very late in the season, at the end of April.

On average 2 to 3 cyclones per season form in the waters surrounding the Northern Territory. This includes the Timor and Arafura Seas and the Gulf of Carpentaria. For this season there are no clear indications of whether cyclone numbers near the Territory will be above or below average. There is a 50% chance of one severe tropical cyclone, which may produce very destructive winds somewhere along the Northern Territory coast.

Cyclones are dangerous. The Bureau of Meteorology urges people to prepare for the threat. Everyone in locations near the coast should clean up outside, have their emergency kits ready and know where they will go in the event of an approaching cyclone.

For further information or media interviews, please contact Michael Foley on (08) 8920 3820 (email m.foley@bom.gov.au).