Monday, 18 October 2004

MEDIA RELEASE – NORTHERN TERRITORY REGIONAL OFFICE

2004/2005 Northern Region Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook

“Average Expectations for Coming Cyclone Season”

Currently we remain in the neutral phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation atmospheric circulation system, but with some leaning towards an El Niño pattern. This leads to the expectation of an average cyclone season for 2004/2005.

• The cyclone season runs from 1 November to 30 April. An early cyclone (i.e. November or early December) is unlikely this year. The average date of the first cyclone near the Northern Territory falls during January.

• The Gulf of Carpentaria tends to see the most cyclone activity during Neutral and El Niño years, although cyclones can still occur anywhere in the waters surrounding the Northern Territory.

• It is likely that at least one tropical cyclone will form in the waters surrounding the Northern Territory, with a 60% chance of 2 to 3 cyclones. No more than 5 tropical cyclones have formed in the one season since Territory records began.

• There is a 50% chance of a severe tropical cyclone (Category 3 or greater) during the season. If a severe cyclone forms, it is more likely to affect the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further Information

Michael Foley or Ian Shepherd on (08) 8920 3820, e-mail: <ntsevere@bom.gov.au>.
For updates on the status of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.
For a map of historical TC distributions during the neutral phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/climatology/tropical_cyclones/tc-neut-years.shtml.