“Cyclone Outlook Launched as Bureau Heads to Coastal Communities”

To coincide with the launch of this year’s tropical cyclone public education programme, the Bureau of Meteorology, Darwin, has released its 2005/2006 Cyclone Season Outlook. The outlook is for the Northern Region of Australia, including the Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The following expectations are based on the current Neutral phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation atmospheric circulation system. Almost all available indicators suggest that Neutral conditions will persist throughout the coming cyclone season, which runs from 1 November until 30 April.

An early cyclone (i.e. November or early December) is unlikely this year, although cannot be ruled out. The average date of the first cyclone in the Northern Region in Neutral years falls during January.
On average 2 to 3 cyclones form in the waters surrounding the Northern Territory each season. However, cyclone numbers in past seasons have ranged from none to as many as 5.
The Gulf of Carpentaria tends to see the most cyclone activity during Neutral years, although cyclones can still occur anywhere in the waters surrounding the Northern Territory. In past seasons with similar conditions, cyclones occurred 50% more often in the Gulf than in the waters to the north or west of the Top End.
There is also a 50% chance of a severe tropical cyclone (Category 3 or greater) forming during the season. If a severe cyclone forms this season, it is more likely to affect the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Over the next four weeks staff from the Bureau of Meteorology and the Northern Territory Emergency Service will travel to coastal communities - including Minjilang, Warruwi, Galiwinku, Alyangula, Nhulunbuy and the Tiwi Islands - to remind people of the dangers of tropical cyclones, and provide information about how they can best prepare to meet the threat.

As we can never be certain what the cyclone season will bring, it is important that people in coastal parts of the Northern Territory take all necessary steps to prepare for the coming season.

Further Information

Further enquires can be directed to Bri Macpherson on (08) 8920 3820 or Michael Foley on (08) 8920 3821, e-mail: <ntsevere@bom.gov.au>.
For updates on the status of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.
For a map of historical TC distributions during the neutral phase of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/climatology/tropical_cyclones/tc-neut-years.shtml.