Friday, 13 October 2006

2006/2007 Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook

The Bureau of Meteorology in Darwin has released its 2006/2007 Cyclone Season Outlook for the waters surrounding the Northern Territory.

Although the outlook indicates a late start to tropical cyclone activity this season, tropical cyclones can develop at any time between 1 November and 30 April. Coastal and island communities in the Top End of the Northern Territory are urged to begin their preparations now.

Details of the outlook for the 2006/2007 tropical cyclone season for the Northern Region:

• An early cyclone (i.e. November or early December) is less likely this year. In El Niño years, the average date of the first cyclone near the Northern Territory falls during January.
• The Gulf of Carpentaria tends to see the most cyclone activity during El Niño years.
• There is a 60% chance of a severe tropical cyclone (Category 3 or greater) during the season. If a severe cyclone forms, it is more likely to affect the Gulf of Carpentaria.
• It is likely that at least one tropical cyclone will form in the seas around the Northern Territory, with a 60% chance of 2 to 3 cyclones. As many as 5 tropical cyclones have formed in a season since records began.

The 2006/2007 tropical cyclone season outlook is based on cooler than average sea surface temperatures about northern Australia and current climate patterns in the Australian and south Pacific region. These patterns are typical of the developing phase of an El Niño event.

The Northern Region incorporates the eastern Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Further enquires can be directed to Ian Shepherd (08) 8920 3821 or Greg Browning (08) 8920 3820, e-mail: ntsevere@bom.gov.au

Additional information: