MEDIA RELEASE - QUEENSLAND REGIONAL OFFICE

Outlook for the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season 2005-06

The Regional Director of the Bureau of Meteorology in Queensland, Mr Jim Davidson, said today that, based on the best available and most recent information, there was no sound meteorological basis for predicting how active the cyclone season in the Coral Sea will be.

Key indicators from the tropical Pacific confirm the continuation of a neutral climate pattern into the New Year, which is quite likely to persist through the cyclone season. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is fluctuating around the long-term mean, neither El Niño nor La Niña.

Some recent studies show an increase in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, especially in the northern hemisphere. At present, it is not possible to attribute the cause to either climate change or natural cyclic variability. An additional consideration in this region is the fact that the number of cyclones during any particular season is influenced by the phase of the SOI.

Mr Davidson also said that it is important to note that the steady growth in development along the Queensland east coast has increased community vulnerability by a much greater factor than any possible upward trend in severe cyclone numbers. Mitigation is a widely recognized strategy to reduce the impact of this increasing exposure to natural disasters.

Notwithstanding the underlying uncertainty, the number of cyclones in the Coral Sea this season is expected to lie between 2 and 4. At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclones that might develop. Historically, the first cyclone of the season has often occurred in December, but this is not always the case.

Last season, cyclone "Ingrid" made landfall at Category 4 intensity on Cape York Peninsula. Mr Davidson emphasized that it is only a matter of time before a severe cyclone strikes a more populated part of the Queensland coast, and this has occasionally happened during otherwise quiet seasons.

The most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides and floods, to understand the warning services, and to be sensibly prepared.

The annual pre-season "disaster mitigation" campaign commences in Mackay this Tuesday 18 October. As in past years, the campaign is being conducted in partnership with the Queensland Department of Emergency Services and the Environmental Protection Agency - and is targeting disaster management groups in cyclone and flood prone areas of the state.

The best source of information on cyclones is the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre's web site at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/cyclone. People are advised to take time out to read the "Surviving Cyclones" brochure as it provides timely advice on preparing for tropical cyclones - and includes a summary of the warning service.

The seasonal outlook for the Gulf of Carpentaria will be issued by the Northern Territory Regional Office.

Further information: Jim Davidson 0409 641 216 or (07) 3239 8739.

World Wide Web www.bom.gov.au
Weather by Fax 1800 630 100 [Free Call Directory]