2 October 2009

Media release

Seasonal Outlook 2009-10 for Queensland and the Coral Sea Region

Summary: The 2009-10 season is expected to be largely influenced by a comparatively weak El Niño event. Therefore rainfall and flooding should not be as extensive as the past two seasons and a tropical cyclone impact on the east coast is a little less likely than in neutral or La Niña years. An expected late start to the monsoon and an outlook favouring above average temperatures suggests a relatively long fire season.

The current El Niño event is unusual in-so-far as waters to the northeast of Australia remain somewhat warmer than average. These unusual ocean conditions have had a notable impact on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which has remained close to zero. Moreover, the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere which amplifies and maintains El Niño events has so far failed to eventuate.

Nevertheless, most global climate models predict a continuation of the El Niño through the summer months. El Niño events are usually associated with below normal rainfall over much of Queensland and a below average number of tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea. Cyclones are also more likely from late December than earlier in the season.

Although a late onset of the wet season is more likely than not, river and flash flooding in response to rainfall events is always possible. High rainfall is linked to the location of the monsoon trough and the path of individual tropical cyclones and other low pressure systems. Slow moving thunderstorms are also capable of producing heavy falls.

Thunderstorms are most likely to occur from now until April with a peak in Southeast Queensland between November and January. If the environmental conditions are supportive, most storms have the potential to be severe with damaging wind and hail.

Good rains early in the year promoted vegetation growth whereas recent dry conditions, relatively high temperatures and low humidity have aided the drying process. The fire season in most parts of Queensland is therefore likely to extend into early summer.

The annual pre-season public awareness campaign is already underway in partnership with the Queensland Departments of Community Safety and Environment and Resource Management and ABC Local Radio Queensland. Seminars are being held in 10 centres including Thursday Island for the first time. The focus at the Seminars is on preparedness and response to cyclones, storm tides, floods and fires.

Early preparation is a key element in disaster risk management. People around the state need to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides, floods and fires – and to have an understanding of the Bureau’s warning services.

The official source of information on tropical cyclones is the Bureau’s web page at http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone. The latest information from the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre is also available by dialling 1300 659 212 (for the cost of a local call). Flood, river and rainfall information is regularly updated at www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld. Flood Warnings are also available by dialling 1300 659 219 (for the cost of a local call).