Thursday, 1 April 2004 

VICTORIAN MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARY (March 2004) 

Driest start to year on record for parts of Victoria

The first quarter of 2004 has seen much of Victoria experiencing one of its driest starts to a year on record. Most places in the north of the State have registered rainfall totals that are only a quarter of the long-term average. Among those towns to establish new first-quarter record lows were:

- Quambatook in the Mallee, with 1.2 mm for the 3-months (previous record 2.1 mm in 1965),

- Cobram and Nathalia in the Northern Country, with 6.0 mm and 2.8 mm, respectively (previous records 9.0 mm in 1986, and 4.0 mm in 1965, respectively),

- Burrowye, Lake Nillahcootie, and Warrenbayne in the Northeast, with 19.6 mm, 25.0 mm, and 31.0 mm, respectively (previous records 47.4 mm in 1998, 43.4 mm in 1985, and 38.6 mm in 1986, respectively).

During March specifically, rainfall was well below average in all Districts except for the West Coast, the driest being the Northeast and Gippsland, where less than 20% of the usual rainfall allocation was received. Night-time temperatures were mainly below average, whilst daytime temperatures were near average in the South of the State, and above average in the North. The month began with a hot spell, which saw Nhill recording the State's highest temperature for the month of 39.3 deg C on the 4th. There were some particularly cold nights, with several light frosts; at Horsham, the temperature sank to 1.0 deg C during the night of March 17/18, whilst in the alps, Falls Creek recorded minus 1.7 deg C on the morning of March 1.

For the March rainfall decile map of Victoria, click here.  For the total rainfall map, click here.
For the March maximum temperature anomaly map of Victoria, click here.
For the March minimum temperature anomaly map of Victoria, click here.

Melbourne
In Melbourne over March, the average maximum temperature was 23.8°C (normal 24.1°C), whilst the average minimum temperature was 14.1°C (normal also 14.1°C). In the city, 14.8 mm of rain was recorded (normal 43.5 mm).

Melbourne's Dry Spell: So far this year, Melbourne has received only 91mm of rain (nearly 50 mm short of the normal of 136.4 mm). Looking back, the city received below normal rainfall in every year between 1997 and 2003. This was the first time on record, that there have been 7 dry years in succession. The dry start for the current year suggests that 2004 may be the 8th such year.

Climate averages for Victoria are available here.
To find out what happened in March 2003, click here.

OUTLOOK (for April to June)

Overall, indicators suggest neutral conditions over the Pacific (that is, neither El Nino nor La Nina) are persisting. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been mostly near zero since the middle of 2003 (also suggestive of neutral conditions), though has shown larger fluctuations over recent months.

Notwithstanding the neutral conditions over the Pacific Ocean, we have a rather unusual distribution of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean. SSTs are near to normal off the northwest coast of Western Australia, but above normal to the southwest of Western Australia. This distribution is likely to discourage the development of rain-bearing cloud bands ahead of cold fronts.

As a consequence, the Bureau's seasonal climate outlook suggests only a 30-40% chance of above normal rainfall across most of Victoria during the next three months.

For further information contact:
Mr Neal Moodie, Victorian Climate Centre, Phone: (03) 9669 4906 (BH)
Dr Harvey Stern, Victorian Climate Centre, Phone: (03) 9669 4949
AH: Phone: (03) 9669 4916
For Climate Information, please email climate.vic@bom.gov.au

Summary statistics for March 2004
	Maximum temperatures  for March (°C)			Minimum temperatures  for March (°C)			Rainfall  for March (mm)
	Mean for 2004	Difference from normal	Long term normal	Mean for 2004	Difference from normal	Long term normal	Total for 2004	Normal total
Albury	29.2	+2.0	27.2	11.1	-1.2	12.3	0.8	44.5
Alpine	14.9	+1.3	13.6	6.8	+1.1	5.7	13.2	95.1
Bairnsdale	24.4	+0.8	23.6	10.1	-1.0	11.1	3.8	46.6
Ballarat	22.8	+0.4	22.4	8.9	-1.4	10.3	24.8	42.9
Benalla	28.7	+1.3	27.4	11.1	-1.1	12.2	6	43.4
Bendigo	26.9	+1.4	25.5	10.0	-2.8	12.8	9	36.4
Colac	22.1	-1.6	23.7	10.4	+0.1	10.3	39.2	45.1
Echuca	28.4	+1.0	27.4	10.9	+2.0	12.9	3.8	33.3
Geelong	22.0	-1.2	23.2	11.4	-0.6	12.0	26.4	38.2
Hamilton	23.1	-1.0	24.1	8.5	-1.6	10.1	62.4	34.9
Horsham (Polkemmet)	26.5	0	26.5	8.4	-3.4	11.9	19.4	23.1
Horsham (Longerenong)	26.7	+0.3	26.4	8.6	-2.9	11.5	13.2	22.5
Latrobe Valley	25.2	+1.2	24.0	10.6	-0.6	11.2	13.4	49.6
Maryborough	25.9	+0.3	25.6	10.2	-1.3	11.5	11.6	33
Melbourne	23.8	-0.3	24.1	14.1	0	14.1	14.8	43.5
Mildura	29.3	+1.0	28.3	12.0	-2.0	14.0	0.6	21.6
Mornington Peninsula	21.8	-0.5	22.3	11.7	-2.7	14.4	41.6	47.7
Nhill	26.8	+0.2	26.6	7.5	-3.9	11.4	21.4	23.5
Orbost	23.6	-0.6	24.2	12.4	0	12.4	9.2	62
Ouyen	29	+0.5	28.5	11.7	-1.5	13.2	2.4	26.5
Portland	20.2	-0.7	20.9	10.5	-1.3	11.8	66.2	41
Sale	24.3	+0.7	23.6	10.4	-1.3	11.7	9.8	57.1
Seymour	27.2	+1.0	26.2	11.2	-1.2	12.4	7	38.1
Shepparton	28.2	+1.8	26.4	11.1	-1.5	12.6	3.8	40.8
Stawell	25.4	+1.0	24.4	10.1	-0.8	10.9	20	36.1
Swan Hill	29.0	+1.1	27.9	10.9	-2.9	13.8	0	20
Wangaratta	29.3	+2.2	27.1	8.2	-2.6	10.8	2.4	37.4
Warracknabeal	27.4	+0.3	27.1	10.6	-1.7	12.3	10	25.3
Warrnambool	21.9	+0.1	21.8	9.7	-1.3	11.0	61.6	53.4
Wonthaggi	21.9	-0.7	22.6	11.5	-0.5	12.0	54	61.6
Yarra Glen	24.7	-0.1	24.8	8.5	-4.1	12.6	31.4	45.1