Following neutral conditions during the early part of last summer, an El Niño has developed over the
cooler months. The 3-month mean value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently -10
compared with a value of -4 at the same time last year. Sea surface temperatures off northwestern
Australia are close to average for this time of year.

The outlook for the coming tropical cyclone season is based on the data presented above and on climate model
predictions of El Niño conditions persisting through until at least February.

Tropical cyclone outlook

• Likelihood of around 2 coastal impacts.



• Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.



• A low chance of a cyclone forming off the northwest coast before Christmas. Should one
  form before Christmas there is a risk of a coastal crossing, most likely in the Kimberley or
  Eighty-mile Beach area. The risk of a coastal impact before Christmas at Pilbara coastal
  towns is low.



• Total number of cyclones in the northwest region is more likely to be below average than
  above average (- the average number of cyclones is 4).
  

 

The National Climate Centre's outlook for total November-January rainfall shows increased
likelihood of above average totals in the far north of the state (see map below). The chances
of above average rainfall in the Kimberley and the NT range from 55-60% with the probability
being highest in the east Kimberley and western areas of the NT. So with climate patterns like
the current, about 6 seasons out of 10 are expected to be wetter than average over these
parts, whilst about 4 out of 10 are drier.





Further enquires on the tropical cyclone outlook to:
Barry Hanstrum
Manager Weather Services, Bureau of Meteorology Perth
Ph. (08) 9263 2289 e-mail: B.Hanstrum@bom.gov.au