Latest weather patterns support predictions of an average number of cyclones (4 to 5) off North West Australia this season and one or two coastal impacts.

Synopsis

While surface temperatures in the western to central Pacific remain close to El Niño thresholds, overall indicators suggest neutral conditions of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Additionally, January's value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) increased to +2, following a period of negative values. The majority of climate models predict near neutral conditions continuing for the remainder of the season. For weekly updates on the state of the tropics go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml.

The season so far

There have been two weak tropical cyclones in the northwest region so far this season. TC Raymond formed on New Years Day and crossed the north Kimberley coast as a category one system the following day. No damage was reported. TC Tim developed well to the northwest of Exmouth on the 23rd and moved away from the coast weakening on the 25th. Cyclone advices were issued for a tropical low in mid-January but the system failed to reach cyclone intensity. The absence of tropical low activity over the Pilbara and west Kimberley has resulted in hot and dry conditions in this region so far this season.

Tropical cyclone outlook for the remainder of the season

• One or two coastal impacts.

• Significant risk of at least one severe cyclone coastal impact during the remainder of the season.

• Total number of cyclones in the northwest region this season is likely to be close to average (the average number of cyclones is 4 to 5).

In addition broadscale patterns suggest that the monsoon will become more active in the next few weeks enhancing prospects for cyclones to develop at this time.

 

Further enquires to:
Andrew Burton Ph. (08) 9263 2283
e-mail: A.Burton@bom.gov.au
or
Joe Courtney Ph. (08) 9263 2282
e-mail: J.Courtney@bom.gov.au

Severe Weather Section, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth.