Latest weather patterns support predictions of an average number of
tropical cyclones (about 5) forming off North West Australia this season.
On average this would correspond to having one to two coastal impacts
for the season. However, despite having already experienced two tropical
cyclones about the Northwest coast in January, there remains the possibility
of further coastal impacts for the remainder of the season.
Although more tropical cyclones are expected to form, Manager of the
Severe Weather Section Andrew Burton cautioned that at this range it
is impossible to predict the likely path or intensity of any individual
cyclone that might occur. "It is therefore important that people
be prepared and know what to do in the event of another cyclone threatening
the coast" said Mr Burton.
Tropical cyclone outlook for the remainder of the season
- Significant risk of a severe cyclone coastal impact during
the remainder of the season.
- Total number of cyclones in the northwest region this season
is likely to be close to average (the average number of cyclones is
5).
In addition current patterns suggest that it won't be until late February
or early March that the monsoon becomes active again reducing the prospects
for cyclones to develop in the next few weeks.
Synopsis
Broadscale patterns suggest continuing neutral conditions of the El
Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is expected to persist
for the remainder of the season. Neutral ENSO conditions are associated
with an average number of tropical cyclones forming off North Western
Australia. For weekly updates on the state of the tropics go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml.
The season so far
Following a quiet start to the season two tropical cyclones developed
in January in the northwest region. Tropical Cyclone Clare reached category
three intensity before crossing the Pilbara coast near Dampier at about
midnight on 9th January (see
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/clare/
for details). Aside from the wind impact on the coast, Clare contributed
to heavy rain inland resulting in flooding over a wide area. Soon after,
Tropical Cyclone Daryl developed near the west Kimberley coast causing
strong winds to the Dampier Peninsula north of Broome. In similar fashion
to Clare, the cyclone moved to the southwest and intensified. Although
threatening the Pilbara coast Daryl remained off the coast before weakening
to the west of Exmouth.
More information
Andrew Burton or Joe Courtney
e-mail: sevwx_wa@bom.gov.au
Ph. (08) 9263 2222
Severe Weather Section, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth.
For weekly updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
For information about cyclones in Western Australia go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/about/
