Communities in the northwest of Western Australia are being urged to begin preparations for the coming tropical cyclone season. The call comes as the Bureau of Meteorology and the FESA-State Emergency Service begin a tour of the northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness and preparation initiatives.

The last tropical cyclone season was very active in the Pilbara with four tropical cyclones crossing the coast: Clare, Emma, Glenda and Hubert. In addition Daryl and Floyd threatened the coastline without directly having an impact. "Although flooding caused many problems, we were lucky that communities in the Northwest did not experience the full force of an intense tropical cyclone" stated Joe Courtney, Severe Weather Meteorologist.

Fortunately the 2006/07 season is not expected to be as busy as last season. There is also a decreased risk of a tropical cyclone affecting the coast before Christmas. "But as we saw with Tropical Cyclone Larry in Queensland, it only takes one tropical cyclone to have a devastating impact" cautioned Mr Courtney. "At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclone that might occur. So the most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, to understand the warning service, and to be sensibly prepared" he said.

The 2006/2007 tropical cyclone season outlook for North West Australia is based on the ocean-atmosphere patterns being typical of a developing El Niño event. The July to September 3-month mean value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -10, much lower than last season. Ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific are higher than normal while those around northern Australia are lower than normal.

Details of the 2006/2007 tropical cyclone season outlook for North West Australia:

• Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.
• Likelihood of around one or two coastal impacts.
• A low chance of a cyclone forming off the northwest coast before Christmas. Should one form before Christmas there is a risk of a coastal crossing, most likely in the Kimberley or Eighty-mile Beach area. The risk of a coastal impact before Christmas at Pilbara coastal towns is low.
• Total number of cyclones in the northwest region is more likely to be below average (the average number of cyclones is 5).
• There is a higher than usual chance of tropical cyclone activity in April.

More information

Andrew Burton or Joe Courtney

e-mail: sevwx_wa@bom.gov.au

Ph. (08) 9263 2222

Severe Weather Section, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth.

For weekly updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

For information about cyclones in Western Australia go to:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/about/