Despite the quiet start to the tropical cyclone season, residents of the northwest are being alerted to the increased cyclone risk from February through to April.

"Our pre-season prediction of a delayed start to the season has come true" said Andrew Burton, Manager of the Severe Weather Section. "However, although we're on track for a below-average number of cyclones, the chances of a tropical cyclone increases significantly from mid-February right through to April", he cautioned. During El Niño patterns such as this it is common to have severe cyclones forming as late as April.

"It is important that people recheck their cyclone preparations as we come to the business end of the season", Mr Burton added.

Tropical cyclone outlook for the remainder of the season

• Significant risk of a severe cyclone coastal impact during the remainder of the season.
• Higher than usual chance of tropical cyclone activity in April.
• Total number of cyclones in the northwest region this season likely to be below average (the average number of cyclones is 5).

Synopsis

Broadscale patterns suggest the current El Niño is starting to weaken with most computer models predicting an end to the El Niño event in the first half of 2007. These conditions are often associated with a below average number of tropical cyclones forming off North Western Australia, a delayed start to the season and a higher than average chance of a late season (April) cyclone. For weekly updates on the state of the tropics go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml.

The season so far

There have been no tropical cyclones in the northwest region so far. Around New Years Day a tropical low developed south of Indonesia. On 2 January the low was named as Tropical Cyclone Isobel, however after the event Isobel was reanalysed as not reaching tropical cyclone intensity. During mid-January a monsoon low caused heavy rain over the Kimberley and then through central Australia. Otherwise conditions have been drier than normal, particularly through the Pilbara.

Further information

Contact Andrew Burton or Joe Courtney
e-mail: sevwx_wa@bom.gov.au
Ph. (08) 9263 2222
Severe Weather Section, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth.

For weekly updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
For information about cyclones in Western Australia go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/about/