North West residents urged to be "cyclone ready"

Communities in the northwest of Western Australia are being urged to begin preparations for the coming tropical cyclone season. The call comes as the Bureau of Meteorology and the FESA-State Emergency Service begin a tour of the northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness and preparation initiatives.

Last season was quiet in terms of the number of cyclones and the first cyclone, Severe Tropical Cyclone George, formed quite late in the season, but it had a devastating impact.

"Last summer shows that there is never a season when you can let your guard down. A season with one tropical cyclone is a bad season if that cyclone devastates your community" cautioned Andrew Burton, Manager of the Severe Weather Section. "We expect more cyclones this season than last, we just hope we don't see another George" added Mr. Burton.

While the Pacific Ocean is showing patterns typical of a La Niña, the waters to the north of Australia are yet to show the expected warming. Values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) are much higher than last season, but not yet at values typical of La Niña. These mixed signals have heightened uncertainty in this year's seasonal outlook.

Mr. Burton cautioned, "Some modeling suggests that these waters will rapidly warm over the coming months, and with La Niña conditions already developed in the Pacific, there is no justification for early season complacency."

"At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclone that might occur. So everyone in the North West needs to be prepared from the start of the season on 1 November", Mr. Burton said.

Details of the 2007/2008 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for North West Australia:

• Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.
• Likelihood of around two coastal impacts.
• Possibility of a pre-Christmas cyclone. Should one form before Christmas; there is a risk of a coastal crossing, most likely in the Kimberley or Eighty-mile Beach area. However all North West communities need to prepare early to mitigate against the risk.
• Total number of cyclones in the northwest region is expected to be greater than last season, with a likely return to near average numbers (the average number of cyclones is 5).

For weekly updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/.

Further enquires to:
Andrew Burton, Joe Courtney, or Bradley Santos, e-mail: sevwx_wa@bom.gov.au
Ph. (08) 9263 2222
Bureau of Meteorology, Perth.
This information available on the internet at: www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone/seasonal/