A tropical low over the Kimberley moved westwards into the Indian Ocean on Friday 23 March and by 24 March was showing potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. At 4pm WDT 24 March a Tropical Cyclone Watch was declared for coastal areas from Onslow to Cape Leveque. The low continued to track west, and at 3pm WDT 25 March it was named Tropical Cyclone Kara. At this stage, the system was located 470 kilometres north of Karratha and 600 kilometres west northwest of Broome.
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On the night of the 25th Kara began to track in a southwesterly direction. Following a period of rapid intensification Kara was upgraded to a Severe Category 3 Cyclone at 8am WST 26 March. At this stage there was greater than usual uncertainty in the future movement of Kara, however the forecast indicated the system should continue to track south southwesterly towards the coast before steering to the southeast on 27 March. Due to the uncertainty in the track, a Cyclone Warning was current for all coastal areas from Exmouth to Wallal, with a Watch extending to Broome.
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Although Kara was a Severe Category 3 Cyclone on 26 March, it was confidently forecast to weaken before impacting the coast. Communities were assured that a severe tropical cyclone impact was highly unlikely. The potential for areas of heavy rain and flooding was highlighted as the most significant risk to Pilbara communities. On the morning of 27 March, Kara was tracking in an east southeasterly direction, and remained a small but intense system. Increasing certainty in the future movement of Kara allowed the area of coast under Cyclone Warnings to be progressively narrowed. As previously forecast, the system weakened very rapidly during the afternoon and evening of 27 March and Kara was downgraded to a tropical low at 9am WST 28 March. At that time it was located near Eighty Mile Beach, about 80 kilometres east northeast of Wallal and 85 kilometres southwest of Bidyadanga. Some high rainfall totals associated with Tropical Cyclone Kara were recorded, particularly in the eastern Pilbara. Preliminary totals in the 48 hours to 9am WST 28 March included 361mm at Pardoo Station, 249mm at Mandora, 244mm at Wallal Downs and 109mm at Telfer Airport (these figures include unchecked data). Falls tapered off dramatically further west, with 65mm at Marble Bar and 36mm at Port Hedland in the same period. ***All information relating to intensity and track is preliminary information based on operational estimates and subject to change following post analysis.***
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