Trend Review

Implementation Phase Commences

The Bureau of Meteorology began a review of its Trend Forecast (TTF) services for the aviation industry in 2012, in response to:

  • Requests from the aviation industry for the Bureau to review its Trend Forecast services and investigate feasible alternative options; and
  • A requirement to meet International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) standards.

In undertaking this review, the Bureau consulted with the aviation industry and the Australian Defence Force through regular consultative meetings and various industry forums. It was also necessary to establish a subject matter expert working group—the Trend Review Working Group (TRWG)—to resolve specific tasks.

The major airports affected by this review are Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Cairns, Canberra, Darwin and Hobart. The Defence aerodromes affected are those with a current TTF service.

Feedback and comment on the draft report was received over a 4 month period to 29 January 2016. All responses supported the recommendations of the review. A Technical Review Group and Executive Review Group has considered all responses.

A Trend Review Implementation Working Group (TRIWG) consisting of a representative group of aviation stakeholders has been formed and is coordinating activities to ensure a smooth transition to a TAF issued routinely every 3 hours at all current TTF locations, Gold Coast and Hobart. The target implementation date is November 2018. The key roles of the TRIWG are to:

  • Develop an implementation plan for the recommendations that ensures the necessary changes are made by November 2018.
  • Investigate the options for rule changes through a Request For Change (RFC) process that would provide similar operational efficiencies to current flight planning practices;
  • Investigate the importance of accessing coded forecast information on AERIS and VOLMET and provide a remedial solution;
  • Develop and implement an agreed communication and education strategy;
  • Update all relevant documentation and educational material; and
  • Resolve other implementation issues identified by the Group.

A copy of the Trend Review Report, a questions and answers document, and risk assessment are at the links below.

Trend Review Final Report (1400 KB) − updated 10 October 2016

Trend Review Q&A (530 KB) − updated 3 October 2016

Risk Assessment (300 KB) − updated 4 December 2015

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