| MONDAY 11 NOVEMBER 2002 | |
|---|---|
| 0830 | COFFEE |
| 0845 | Welcome and introduction (Mike Manton &/or Elizabeth Ebert) |
| SESSION 1: MODELLING AND PREDICTING EXTREME WEATHER AT THE MESOSCALE | |
| 0900 | Stan Benjamin (NOAA, FSL), John M. Brown, Georg Grell and Tanya Smirnova - "Mesoscale application of a quasi-Lagrangian, quasi-isentropic model vertical coordinate in the Rapid Update Cycle" (Keynote presentation) |
| 0950 | Tony Bannister (VIC Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology) - "Current use of NWP in operational fire weather forecasting" |
| 1010 | Graham Mills (BMRC) - "Modelling fire weather" |
| 1030 | COFFEE |
| 1100 | Dale Hess (BMRC), S. Lee (CSIRO), A. G. Wain (BMRC), K.J. Tory (BMRC) and M.E. Cope (CSIRO) - "Modelling the King Island smoke event with AAQFS and HYSPLIT" |
| 1120 | K.J. Tory (BMRC), M.E. Cope (CSIRO), G.D. Hess (BMRC), S. Lee (CSIRO) and N. Wong (EPA VIC) - "The use of long-range transport simulations to verify the Australian Air Quality Forecasting System" |
| 1140 | X. Huang, G. Mills, G. Weymouth, R. Potts and T. Keenan (BMRC) - "Using high resolution LAPS model to predict fog" |
| 1200 | Discussion Session |
| 1230 | LUNCH |
| SESSION 2: MODELLING AND PREDICTING EXTREME WEATHER AT THE MESOSCALE | |
| 1400 | Graham A. Mills (BMRC) - "Modelling extreme weather" (Keynote presentation) |
| 1450 | Peter Steinle (BMRC) - "A new assimilation system for meso-scale NWP" |
| 1510 | J.R. Colquhoun (NSW Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology) and G.A. Mills (BMRC) - "The use of NWP models in severe thunderstorm forecasting - a Sydney perspective" |
| 1530 | COFFEE |
| 1600 | Harald Richter (BMRC) and Carl E. Hane - "Initiation of severe convection along the dryline of the southern United States" |
| 1620 | Gordon E. Jackson (NT Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology) and Roger K. Smith - "Prediction of low-level mesoscale convergence lines over northeastern Australia" |
| 1640 | Neil Adams (Antarctic CRC and TAS Regional Ofice, Bureau of Meteorology) - "Modelling and predicting extreme wind events at Casey, East Antarctica" |
| 1700 | Discussion session |
| 1730 | 'ICE-BREAKER' |
| TUESDAY 12 NOVEMBER 2002 | |
|---|---|
| 0830 | COFFEE |
| SESSION 3: MODELLING AND PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONES | |
| 0900 | Noel Davidson (BMRC) - "Verification, systematic errors and some interesting cases from operational TC-LAPS" (Keynote presentation) |
| 0950 | Barry Hanstrum (WA Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology) - "The use of NWP in tropical cyclone forecasting - a case study of Tropical Cyclone Chris" |
| 1010 | J.F. Le Marshall (BMRC), L.M. Leslie (Univ. NSW), A. Rea and R. Seecamp (BMRC) - "Reducing large tropical cyclone forecast errors using high resolution satellite data and 4DVAR" |
| 1030 | COFFEE |
| 1100 | Lawrie Rikus, Noel Davidson and Robin Bowen (BMRC) - "Synthetic satellite imagery based on an operational tropical cyclone NWP model" |
| 1120 | Jeffrey D. Kepert (BMRC) - "Modelling the tropical cyclone boundary layer windfield at landfall" |
| 1140 | Discussion session |
| 1210 | LUNCH |
| SESSION 4: MODELLING AND PREDICTING RAINFALL EXTREMES | |
| 1400 | Elizabeth Ebert (BMRC) - "Heavy rain forecasts from operational NWP models" |
| 1420 | Noel E. Davidson (BMRC) - "Modelling heavy rain" |
| 1440 | Richard Dare (BMRC) - "Bulk explicit microphysics in the LAPS models" |
| 1500 | M.J. Revell (NIWA) - "A storm over the Australian desert driven by moist processes" |
| 1520 | COFFEE |
| 1550 | N.T. Servando (PAGASA, Philippines), A.C. de Sesto, R.T. Perez, L. About and R.Z. Quinto - "Evaluation of high resolution modelling for rainfall forecasting in the Philippines" |
| 1610 | Alan Seed (BMRC), Neill Bowler and Clive Pierce - "Stochastic nowcasts of rainfall" |
| 1630 | Matthew Wheeler (BMRC) - "The Madden Julian Oscillation and the Java floods of January/February 2002" |
| 1650 | D.-H. Shin and Y.-R. Guo (Korea Meteorological Administration) - "The impact of high-density surface observation data in 3DVAR for heavy rainfall case over the Korean Peninsula" |
| 1710 | Discussion session |
| 1900 | WORKSHOP DINNER at The Pumphouse Hotel, 128 Nicholson St., Fitzroy (MAIN COURSES ABOUT $25; EACH PERSON TO PAY FOR THEIR OWN MEAL AND DRINKS) |
| WEDNESDAY 13 NOVEMBER 2002 | |
|---|---|
| 0830 | COFFEE |
| SESSION 5: CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME WEATHER | |
| 0900 | Kerry Emanuel (MIT) - "Tropical cyclones and climate" (Keynote presentation) |
| 0950 | Kevin Walsh (Univ. Melbourne) - "Tropical cyclones and climate change: unresolved issues" |
| 1010 | Debbie Abbs (CSIRO) - "The impact of climate change on the intensity of extreme rainfall events" |
| 1030 | COFFEE |
| 1100 | B. Timbal and B. McAvaney (BMRC) - "Using downscaling to assess extreme weathers in changed climatic conditions" |
| 1120 | Andrew J. Pitman (Macquarie Univ.) - "Is land cover change a significant cause of changes in maximum temperatures and extreme precipitation?" |
| 1140 | Ian Simmonds and Harun A. Rashid (Univ. of Melbourne) - "Hemispheric-scale organisation during three successive intense cold outbreaks over southeastern Australia in 2000" |
| 1200 | Discussion session |
| 1230 | LUNCH |
| SESSION 6: THE USE OF ENSEMBLES IN MODELLING AND PREDICTING EXTREME WEATHER | |
| 1400 | Francois Lalaurette (ECMWF) - "Ensemble forecasts: can they provide useful early warnings?" (Keynote presentation) |
| 1450 | Michael Naughton (BMRC), Wlliam Bourke, Gerald Embery and James Fraser- "Bureau of Meteorology medium-range ensemble prediction system" |
| 1510 | Beth Ebert (BMRC) - "Poor man's (multi-model) ensemble forecasts of heavy rain" |
| 1530 | COFFEE |
| 1600 | John McBride (BMRC) - "The performance of the GASP ensemble prediction system for some extreme events" |
| 1620 | Christian Jakob and Elizabeth Ebert (BMRC) - "Probabilistic precipitation forecasts from deterministic forecast models" |
| 1640 | PANEL DISCUSSION |
| 1730 | FINAL REMARKS and CLOSE OF WORKSHOP |
For further information contact:
Dr Beth Ebert (03-9669-4688, e.ebert@bom.gov.au)
or Phil Meighen (03-9669-4374, p.meighen@bom.gov.au).
Last updated 31 October 2002 by P. Meighen.
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