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Climate Forecasting Group Publications

CLIMATE FORECASTING HOME CLIMATE FORECASTING STAFF CLIMATE FORECASTING EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS CLIMATE FORECASTING COLLABORATIONS CLIMATE FORECASTING ANNUAL REPORT

These are since 2006 only. For earlier publications, see individual group member pages here.
2007

JOURNAL ARTICLES


Articles waiting to be published
Hendon, H.H. and M.C. Wheeler 2008: Some space-time spectral analyses of tropical convection and planetary-scale waves. J. Atmos. Sci., submitted.
Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, G. W. Branstator and H. van Loon, 2007: A coupled air-sea response mechanism to solar forcing in the Pacific region, J. Climate (in press)
Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster, W. D. Collins, 2007: Effects of black carbon aerosols on the Indian monsoon, J. Climate (in press)
Chambers, L.E., Quin, B., Menkhorst, P., Franklin, D.C., Smales, I. 2007. Climate as a driver for breeding in the Helmeted Honeyeater. (submitted to Emu).
Chambers, L.E. 2007. Trends in avian migration timing in south Western Australia and their relationship to climate. (submitted to Global Change Biology).
Marshall, A., O. Alves, and H.H. Hendon 2007: An enhanced moisture convergence-evaporation feedback mechanism for MJO air/sea interaction. J. Atmos. Sci. (in revision)
Timbal, B. and D. Jones, 2007: Future projections of winter rainfall in Southeast Australia using a statistical downscaling technique". Submitted to Climatic Change.
Jiang. X, D. E. Waliser, M. C. Wheeler, C. Jones, M.-I. Lee, and S. D. Schubert, 2007: Assessing the skill of an all-season statistical forecast model for the Madden-Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.
Leroy, A. and M. C. Wheeler 2007: Statistical prediction of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., submitted.
Zhu, H. and A. Thorpe 2007. Dependence of the ensemble spread on the model uncertainty in the simulation of the extra-tropical cyclone (submitted to QJRMS).

Articles published
Meehl, G. A., J. M. Arblaster and C. Tebaldi, 2007: Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to changes in temperature extremes over the U.S, Geophys. Res. Lett., , 34, L19709, doi:10.1029/2007GL030948
Hendon, H.H., D.W.J. Thompson, and M.C. Wheeler, 2007: Australian rainfall and surface temperature variations associated with the Southern Annular Mode. J. Climate.,20, 2452-2467.
Hendon, H.H., M.C. Wheeler, and C. Zhang, 2007: Seasonal dependence of the MJO-ENSO relationship. J. Climate, 20, 531-543.
Wang, G., and H.H. Hendon, 2007: Sensitivity of Australian Rainfall to Inter-El Ni·o Variations. J. Climate, 20, 4211-4216.
Lim, E.-P. and I. Simmonds 2007: Southern Hemisphere winter extratropical cyclone characteristics and ve rtical organization observed with the ERA-40 reanalysis data in 1979-2001. J. of Climate,20,2675-2690
Lo, F., M.C. Wheeler, H. Meinke, and A. Donald, 2007: Probabilistic forecasts of the onset of the north Australian wet season. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3506-3520.
McGregor, S., N. Holbrook, S. B. Power, 2007: Interdecadal Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part I: The Role of Off-Equatorial Wind Stresses and Oceanic Rossby Waves. J. Climate.,20, 2643-2658.


BOOKS, AND BOOK CHAPTERS



SELECTED OTHER PUBLICATIONS (e.g. Technical Reports)

  • Indian Ocean Climate Initiative

  • South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative

  • Western Australian Marine Science Institution



    2006

    JOURNAL ARTICLES

    Arblaster J.M. 2006: Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (spring 2005): a wet and warm season across much of Australia, Aust. Met. Mag., 55, 231-244
    Tebaldi, C., K. Hayhoe, J.M. Arblaster, G.A. Meehl, 2006: Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and futre changes in extreme events, Climatic Change, 79, 185-211
    Arblaster J.M. and G.A. Meehl, 2006: Contributions of external forcings to Southern Annular Mode trends, J. Climate, 19, 2896-2905
    Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, D.M. Lawrence, A. Seth, E.K. Schneider, B.P. Kirtman and D. Min, 2006: Monsoon regimes in the CCSM3 J. Climate, 19, 2482-2495
    Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, B.D. Santer, W.D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, D.M. Lawrence, H. Teng, L.E. Buja and W.G. Strand Jr, 2006: Climate change projections for the 21st century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J. Climate, 19, 2597-2616
    Chambers, L.E. 2006. The heat is on. Wingspan 16(4):28-29
    Chambers, L.E. 2006. Associations between climate change and species in Australia BAMS 87(2):201-206
    Chambers, L.E., and Loyn, R.H. 2006. The influence of climate on numbers of three waterbird species in Western Port, Victoria, 1973-2002. International Journal of Biometeorology 50:292-304.
    Zhang, C., M. Dong, S. Gualdi, H.H. Hendon, E.D. Maloney, A. Marshall, K.R. Sperber and W. Wang, 2006: Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in Four Pairs of Coupled and Uncoupled Global Models. Climate Dynamics, 27 (6), 573-592.
    McPhaden, M.J., X. Zhang, H.H. Hendon, and M.C. Wheeler, 2006: Large scale dynamics and MJO forcing of ENSO variability. Geophy. Res. Lett., 33, LI6702, doi:10.1029/2006GL026786.
    Power, S.B., and R. Colman, 2006: Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model. Climate Dynamics, 26, 247-272
    Nicholls, N., D. Collins, B. Trewin and P. Hope, 2006: Historical instrumental climate data for Australia - Quality and utility for palaeoclimatic studies. Journal of Quaternary Science, Special Australian Edition, 21, 681-688
    Hope, P.K., 2006. 'Projected future changes in the synoptic systems influencing southwest Western Australia'Climate Dynamics 26, 765-780
    Hope, P.K., W. Drosdowsky and N. Nicholls, 2006. 'Shifts in the synoptic systems affecting southwest Western Australia'Climate Dynamics 26, 751-764
    Power, S., M. Haylock, R. Colman, and X. Wang, 2006: The predictability of interdecadal changes in ENSO and ENSO teleconnections. J. Climate, 8, 2161-2180
    Timbal, B., J. Arblaster and S. Power, 2006: Attribution of late-twetntieth-century rainfall decline in southwest Australia. J. Climate, 19, 2046-2062.
    Timbal B., J.M. Arblaster, 2006: Land cover change as an additional forcing to explain the rainfall decline in the south west of Australia, Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, doi:10.1029/2005GL025361
    Donald, A., H. Meinke, B. Power, A.H.N. Maia, M.C. Wheeler, N. White, R.C. Stone, and J. Ribbe, 2006: Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation on rainfall. Geophy. Res. Lett., 33, L09704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025155.
    Lin, J.-L., G.N. Kiladis, B.E. Mapes, K.M. Weickmann, K.R. Sperber, M.C. Wheeler, S.D. Schubert, A. Del Genio, L.J. Donner, S. Emori, J.-F. Gueremy, F. Hourdin, P.J. Rasch, E. Roeckner, and J.F. Scinocca, 2006: Tropical intraseasonal variability in 14 IPCC AR4 climate models. Part I: Convective signals. J. Climate, 19, 2655-2690.
    Waliser, D., K. Weickmann, R. Dole, S. Schubert, O. Alves, C. Jones, M. Newman, H.-L. Pan, A. Roubicek, S. Saha, C. Smith, H. van den Dool, F. Vitart, M. Wheeler, and J. Whitaker, 2006: The experimental MJO prediction project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 425-431.
    Bessafi, M. and M.C. Wheeler, 2006: Modulation of south Indian Ocean tropical cyclones by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled equatorial waves. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 638-656.
    Hongyan Zhu, and Alan Thorpe, 2006: Predictability of extra-tropical cyclones: the influence of initial condition and model uncertainties. J. Atmos. Sci. 63, 1483-1497


    SELECTED OTHER PUBLICATIONS (e.g. Technical Reports)

    Ryan, B. and P. Hope (Eds), 2006: Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Stage 2: Report of Phase 2 Activity Jan 2005-June 2006, IOCI, see: http://www.ioci.org.au
    A.G. Marshall, O. Alves, H.H. Hendon, and M.C. Wheeler, 2006: A wavenumber-frequency spectral analysis of intraseasonal variability in the standard BMRC atmosphere general circulation model. BMRC Research Report, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, No.122, 28pp.
    M.C. Wheeler, 2006: Intraseasonal predictions: The Madden-Julian oscillation and its application to tropical cyclone forecasting. Contribution for the Working Group on Short-term Climate Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity and Intensity, 6th WMO IWTC Report.


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