Peer Reviewed Publications
On-going
(not published yet)
(pls.
contact me if you want the latest status of these manuscripts or if you would
like to see an early draft)
- B. Timbal, Z. Li and E. Fernandez. 2008:
“Documentation of the Graphical User-friendly
Interface to provide point specific climate change projections using the
Bureau statistical downscaling technique”, CAWCR research report (in preparation)
- A. Hasson, G. Mills, K. Walsh and B. Timbal. 2008: “Assessing the
impact of climate change on extreme fire weather in southeast Australia”,
CAWCR research report (in
preparation)
- B. Timbal, P. Hope and
S. Charles. 2008: “Evaluating the consistency between statistically
downscaled and global dynamical model climate change projections”, J.
of Climate (note, submitted)
- B. Timbal, E.
Fernandez and Z. Li. 2008: “Generalization
of a statistical downscaling model to provide local climate change
projections on a continental scale using a graphical interface”, Environmental
Modelling and Software (submitted)
- B. Timbal, P. Hope and R. Fawcett. 2008:
"On the relationship between rainfall in the southwest and southeast
of Australia.
Part I: Variability on daily and longer time-scale" J. of Climate (submitted)
- B. Timbal, M. Wheeler and P. Hope. 2008:
"On the relationship between rainfall in the southwest and southeast
of Australia.
Part II: Possible causes of recent declines" J. of Climate (submitted)
- C. Rakich, N.
Holbrook and B. Timbal. 2008: “A pressure gradient metric capturing
planetary-scale influence on eastern Australian rainfall”. Geo. Res. Let. (accepted)
- R. Kounkou, G. Mills and B. Timbal.
2007: "Development of a climatology of the
risk of occurrences of Cool Season Tornadoes over southern Australia".
Int. J. of Clim. (accepted).
Chapter
in books
- B. Timbal, N.
Nicholls, W. Cai, K. Hennessy and P. Hope. 2007:
“Chapter 3: Causes of past climate change”, in CSIRO and the Bureau of
Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia, 148 pp, www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
- I. Watterson,
P. Whetton, A. Moise, B. Timbal, S. Power, J. Arblaster and K.
McInnes. 2007: “Chapter 5: Regional climate change projections”, in CSIRO and the
Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Change in Australia, 148 pp, www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au
Article
- B. Timbal and D. Jones. 2008: "Future
projections of winter rainfall in Southeast Australia using a statistical
downscaling technique". Climatic Change, 86, 165-187
- B. Murphy and B. Timbal. 2007: "Recent
climate variability and climate change in south eastern Australia".
Int. J. of Clim, published
on-line, DOI:
10.1002/joc.1627
- B. Timbal and J. Arblaster. 2006: "Land
cover change as an additional forcing to explain the rainfall decline in
the South West of Australia". Geo. Res. Let., 33,
L07717, doi:10.1029/2005GL025361
- B. Timbal, J. Arblaster and S. Power. 2006:
"Attribution
of the late 20th century rainfall decline in South-West Australia".
J. of Climate, 19(10), 2046-2062
- B. Timbal. 2004: "South West
Australia past and future rainfall trends", Cli. Res., 26(3),
233-249
- B. Timbal, A. Dufour and B.J. McAvaney. 2003:
"An
estimate of climate change for Western France using a statistical
downscaling technique", Climate Dyn., 17, 947-963
- B. Timbal, S. Power, R. Colman, J. Viviand and S. Lirola. 2002: "
Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability
over Australia?",
Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc.
- B. Timbal, S. Power, R. Colman, J. Viviand and S. Lirola. 2002: "
Does soil moisture influence climate variability and predictability over
Australia?", J. Climate, 15, 1230-1238
- B. Timbal and B.J. McAvaney. 2001: "An
Analogue based method to downscale surface air temperature: Application
for Australia", Climate Dyn. , 17, 947-963
- B. Timbal and A. Henderson-Sellers. 1998: "Intercomparison
of land-surface parameterizations coupled to a limited area forecast
model" Global Planet. Change, 19, 247-260
- J. Polcher, M.-A. Gaertner,
A. Hahmann, B. McAvaney, J.-F. Mahfouf, J. Noilhan,
T. Phillips, A. Pitman, A. Schlosser, J.-P. Schulz, B. Timbal, D. Verseghy and P. Viterbo and Y. Xue.
1998: "A
proposal for a general interface between land-surface schemes and general
circulation models" Global Planet. Change, 19,
261-276
- J.-F. Royer, F. Chauvin, B. Timbal,
P. Araspin and D. Grimal.
1998: "A
GCM study of the impact of greenhouse gas increase on the frequency of
occurrence of tropical cyclones" Clim. Change, 38,
307-343
- B. Timbal, U. Cubasch,
J.M. Murphy, J.-F. Mahfouf and J.-F. Royer. 1997: "Comparison
between doubled CO2 time slice and coupled experiments" J.
Climate, 10, 1463-1469
- B. Timbal, A.N. Hahmann, A.J. Pitman, W. Qu, A. Henderson-Sellers and A. Slater. 1997:
"Integrating Land Surface and Atmospheric Models" EOS, 78,
173-181
- R.D. Cess, M.-H. Zhang, G.L. Potter, V.
Alekseev, H.W. Barker, S. Bony, R.A. Colman, D.A. Dazlich,
A.D. Del Genio, M. Deque,
M.R. Dix, V. Dymnikov, M. Esch,
L.D. Fowler, J.R. Fraser, V. Galin, W.L. Gates,
J.J. Hack, W.J. Ingram, J.T. Kiehl, Y. Kim, H. Le Treut, X.-Z. Liang, B.J.
McAvaney, V.P. Meleshko, J.-J. Morcrette, D.A. Randall, E. Roeckner, M.E.
Schlesinger, P.V. Sporyshev, K.E. Taylor, B.
Timbal, E.M. Volodin, W. Wang, W.-C. Wang,
R.T. Wetherald. 1997: "Comparison
of the seasonal change in cloud-radiative forcing from atmospheric general
circulation models and satellite observations" J. Geophys. Res., 102, 16,593-16,603
- E. Martin, B. Timbal and E. Brun. 1996: "Downscaling
of general circulation models outputs: simulation of the snow climatology
of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change" Climate
Dyn., 13, 45-56
- R.D. Cess, M.H. Zhang, W.J. Ingram,
G.L. Potter, V. Alekseev, H.W. Barker, E. Cohen-Solal,
R.A. Colman, D.A. Dazlich, A.D. Del Genio, M.R. Dix, V. Dymnikov,
M. Esch, L.D. Fowler, J.R. Fraser, V. Galin, W.L. Gates, J.J. Hack, J.T. Kiehl, H. Le Treut,
K.K.-W. Lo, B.J. McAvaney, V.P. Meleshko, J.-J. Morcrette, D.A. Randall, E. Roeckner, J.-F. Royer,
M.E. Schlesinger, P.V. Sporyshev, B. Timbal,
E.M. Volodin, K.E. Taylor, W.Wang,
and R.T. Wetherald. 1996: "Cloud
feedback in atmospheric general circulation models: An update" J. Geophys. Res., 101, 12,791-12,794
- B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-F. Royer and D.
Cariolle. 1995: "Sensitivity
to prescribed changes in sea surface temperature and sea-ice in doubled
carbon dioxide experiments" Climate Dyn., 12, 1-20
- J.-F. Mahfouf, D. Cariolle, J.-F.
Royer, J.-F. Geleyn and B. Timbal. 1994:
"Response
of the METEO-FRANCE Climate Model to Changes in CO2 and
Sea-Surface-Temperature" Climate Dyn., 9, 345-362
On-line
publication
- B. Timbal and B. Murphy. 2007: "Observed
climate change in South-East of Australia and its relation to large-scale
modes of variability". BMRC Res. Let. 6, 6-11
- R.L. Wilby, S.P. Charles, E. Zorita, B.
Timbal, P. Whetton and L.O. Mearns, 2004: "Guidelines
for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Statistical Downscaling
Methods". Published on-line, supporting material to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, detailed guidelines, 2, 27pp
Extended
abstract
- B. Timbal and Z. Li.
2007: “A user friendly interface to provide point specific climate change
projections”, proceedings of MODSIM07,
Christchurch,
New-Zealand
- B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-F. Royer and D.
Cariolle. 1995: "Sensitivity of climate change in Europe to the Northern Atlantic warming" proceedings of the
International conference on past, present and future climate, SILMU,
481-485
- B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-F. Royer and M. Deque. 1994: "Sensitivity parameters of the
METEO-FRANCE climate models: EMERAUDE and ARPEGE" in Climate
Sensitivity to Radiative Perturbations: Physical Mechanisms and Their
Validation, NATO/ASI Series, H. Le Treut (ed.), 34, 203-213
- J.-F. Royer, F. Chauvin and B.
Timbal. 1994: "Analysis of the monsoon response to radiative
perturbations in GCM simulations" in Climate
Sensitivity to Radiative Perturbations: Physical Mechanisms and Their
Validation, NATO/ASI Series, H. Le Treut (ed.), 34, 281-291
Report
- R. Kounkou, B. Timbal and G.
Mills. 2007: "The impact of anthropogenic climate change on the risk
of cool-season tornado occurrences". BMRC
Research Report, 129 , pp 79
- A. Voldoire, B. Timbal and S.
Power. 2002:
"Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting". BMRC Research
Report, 87, 62pp
- J. Viviand,
S. Lirola, B. Timbal, S. Power and R. Colman. 2000: "Impact of
soil moisture on climate variability and predictability". BMRC
Research Report, 81, 49pp
- B. Timbal and B.J. McAvaney, 2000: "A downscaling
procedure for Australia". BMRC Research Report, 78, 40pp
- J.-F. Royer, F. Chauvin, B. Timbal,
P. Araspin and D. Grimal,
1997: "A GCM study of the impact of greenhouse gas increase on the
frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones". CNRM, GMGEC note de
centre, 56, 53pp
- B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf and J.F. Royer, 1996:
"Comparions between doubled CO2
time-slice and coupled experiments". CNRM, GMGEC note de centre, 52,
35pp
- B. Timbal, J.-F. Mahfouf, J.-F. Royer and D.
Cariolle, 1995: "Sensitivity to prescribe changes in seas surface temperature
and sea-ice in double carbon dioxyde
experiments". CNRM, GMGEC note de centre, 42, 40pp
- B. Timbal and J.-F.
Mahfouf, 1994: "Analyses d'experiences de sensibilite au doublement du CO2 avec le modele Arpege, comparaison
avec les resultats d'Emeraude". CNRM, GMGEC note de centre, 29,
70pp (in French)
- B. Timbal, J.-F.
Mahfouf, M. Deque and J.F. Royer, 1993: "Experiences de sensibilite a
des anomalies uniformes de temperature de la mer
avec les modeles Emeraude et Arpege".
CNRM, GMGEC note de
centre, 25, 44pp (in French)
Other
publications (not peer
reviewed)
Extended
abstract
- B. Timbal, H. Hendon and O. Alves. 2006:
"BMRC involvement in the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
(SEACI)". In Climate change research in the Bureau of Meteorology ,
S.B. Power and K. Pearce (eds.), BMRC
Research Report, 125, 74-76
- B. Timbal. 2006: "Statistical Downscaling
in BMRC". In Climate change research in the Bureau of Meteorology ,
S.B. Power and K. Pearce (eds.), BMRC
Research Report, 125, 68-72
- B. Timbal. 2006: "Statistical Downscaling -
an important part of ACCESS". In "The Australian Community
Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) - challenge and
opportunities". BMRC
Research Report, 123, 18th BMRC Modelling Workshop, pp 123-126
- B. Timbal. 2005: "What has happened with
the winter rainfall in southern Australia?".
In "Hydrometeorological Applications of
Weather and Climate Modelling". BMRC
Research Report, 111, 17th BMRC Modelling Workshop, pp 21-24
- B. Timbal, M.
Wheeler, S. Chêne, L. Maitrepierre and A. Leroy. 2004: "Impact de la
variabilité inter-annuelle et intra-saisonnière
sur l‘activité cyclonique et la pluviométrie". Acte des Assises
Française de la Recherche dans le Pacifique, Nouméa, New Caledonia, 6pp (in French)
- B. Timbal and B.J. McAvaney. 2002: "Using
downscaling to assess extreme weathers in changed climatic
conditions". In BMRC Research Report, 90, "Modelling and
predicting extreme events" 14th BMRC Modelling Workshop, pp 133-136
On-line
publication
- B. Timbal, 1997: " Technical note: PILPS -
Phase 4 (b): Land Surface Model Coupling to
LAPS". PILPS technical note, available online
Technical
publication
- B. Timbal, B. Murphy, E. Fernandez and Z. Li.
2008: “Development of the analogue downscaling technique for rainfall,
temperature, surface humidity and pan evaporation”. South-Eastern
Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.3.1, (in
preparation)
- B. Timbal, B. Murphy, K. Braganza, H. Hendon, M.
Wheeler and C. Rakich. 2007: “Compare documented climate changes with
those attributable to specific causes”. South-Eastern Australian Climate
Initiative (SEACI), final report for project 1.1.2, 19 pp
- B. Timbal and B. Murphy. 2007: “Document changes
in south-eastern Australian rainfall, temperature, surface humidity and
pan evaporation”. South-Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI),
final report for project 1.1.1, 19 pp
- H. Zhang, O. Alves, D. Hess, H.
Richter, B. Timbal, B. McAvaney, G. Mills, K. Puri, G. Roff and G. Weymouth. 2003: "BMRC Land-Surface
Modelling and Studies: Current Status and Future Plans". BMRC
strategy paper, 35 pp
- B. Timbal, G. Mills and F. Woodcock. 2003: "Downscaling
in BMRC". BMRC strategy paper, 29pp
- B. Timbal, 1994:
"Analyses d'experience de modifications
climatiques liees a
l'augmentation des gaz a effet de serre. Sensibilite
de la reponse a la formulation du modele et aux forcages
utilises". Institut national Polytechnique de Toulouse, France. PhD Thesis (in
French)
- B. Timbal and J.-F.
Mahfouf, 1992: "Analyses d'une experience
de sensibilite au doublement du CO2
avec le modele Emeraude". CNRM, GMGEC note
de centre, 15, 47pp (in French)
- B. Timbal, 1992: "Analyses
d'une experience de sensibilite
au doublement du gaz carbonique simulee par un modele climatique". DEA thesis, INPT, 41pp (in French)
- B. Timbal, 1992:
"Analyses d'une experience de sensibilite au doublement du gaz carbonique simulee par un modele
climatique". Final year thesis,
ENSEEIHT, INPT, 56pp (in French)
- B. Timbal, 1991:
"Rapport de stage industriel au centre d'essai de Mack Truck, inc". Second year training period report, ENSEEIHT, INPT, 50pp (in
French)
Media
release and relevant press article
- June 2007, SEACI program: “The Drying of Australia’s South East”. CSIRO
press release
- April 2006, Australian Farm Journal:
" Shorter growing season predicted for WA wheat belt"
- November 2005, Canberra Times, Canberra: "Canberra
may be singin' in the rain, but elsewhere it'll
be a different tune", by T. Glumac
- 2005, Greenhouse conference, Melbourne, Australia:
Less
winter rain in southern Australia. Bureau of Meteorology press release
- 2004, 16th Australian New-Zealand
Climate Forum, Lorne, Australia: Will
dry times in south-east Australia continue?. Bureau of Meteorology press release