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Australian Rainfall (112.5°-155°E,43.4°S-11°S)



Skill of statistical-dynamical prediction

  • Statistical bridging: Use POAMA's prediction of SST time series obtained by EOF or SVD analysis or POAMA's predictio of NINO4 index

    Skill of rainfall anomaly prediction using POAMA SST analysed with
    EOF analysis SVD analysis NINO 4 Regional averages (histograms)


  • Maximum skill we can get from SVDA bridging technique

  • Statistical calibration: Use POAMA's prediction of rainfall time series obtained by SVD analysis



  • Mean rainfall predicted from these statistical-dynamical models



  • Percent consistent score (hit rates in %)



    Ability of POAMA 1.5a to simulate the teleconnection between ENSO and AU rainfall anomaly

  • Measured by correlation between AU rainfall anomaly and NINO3 and NINO4 indice

  • Measured by correlation between AU rainfall anomaly and SST EOF PC1,2 and 3
    OBS POAMA LT0 POAMA LT3 POAMA LT6




    Skill of POAMA V1 and V1.5a rainfall anomaly prediction



    Skill of rainfall anomaly prediction from a statistical multiple linear regression model
    (1) with the first two observed rotated EOF patterns of 1949-1991 and
    (2) with the first two observed unrotated EOF patterns of 1980-2006 (crossvalidated)



    Observed relationship between the Victorian rainfall anomaly and the tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomaly

    Correlation Partial Correlation




  • Plots of Nino, Great Barrier Reef and Indian Ocean indice have been moved to POAMA 1.5a SST page