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Tropical Indo-Pacific SST (40°-280°E,30°S-20°N)



Skill assessment of POAMA's SST prediction:

Lead Time 0 month LT 3 months LT 6 months Regional averages (histograms)


(Note: Lead time 0 means there is no cap between the issue time of the forecast and the beginning of the forecast validity period. For more details, refer to the WMO documentation (attachement II.8) at http://www.bom.gov.au/wmo/lrfvs/users.shtml )



POAMA's prediction of 1997 and 2002 ENSO events in SON at lead time 0:

1997 2002


  • AU rainfall anomaly in those years



    Ability of POAMA v1.5a to predict:

  • Indian Ocean

        Skill comparison between HadISST and Reynolds OI SST
        (Note: rough estimate of the skill with Reynolds at this stage due to resolution and landmask)

  • Nino 3 & 4 region

  • Great Barrier Reef