Mike Fromm (NRL US Navy)

Hello John,

Thanks for keeping an eye on the situation.  It's especially useful for me to read
what the local experts know and see...I'm still on the learning curve when it comes to
your weather and norms.

I checked out the wonderful BOM web site:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/national/charts/synoptic.shtml
to look for a sfc chart for 17-19 Jan (when the first blowup in TOMS AI occurred).
The setup conditions that we (Rene Servranckx and I) have seen in other cases we've
studied (Canadian fires, smoke, convection) are evident. (See attached)  That setup includes
an approaching cold front, which is sliding through SE Aus on 18 Jan.  Thus  it looks to me that
the synoptic lifting/destabilizing mechanism is in place at that time.  Combine that with the
generally warm conditions and the intensification of the heat by the fires, and thus it appears
there's a volatile situation.

I don't know much about the Aus summer weather in that area, but you mentioned that you did
not expect to see convection.  Is deep convection in those parts relatively rare?  Is it a surprise
to see these deep Cbs popping up on several days?

Thanks again for helping make all this make sense,
mikef

Tony Bannister

Hi Mike,
from memory we had radar returns up to 12km from the fire storm that hit Canberra on Sat 18th Jan.
During Thu 30 Jan we had radar returns to at least 11km from the fires over NE Victoria, these fires
produced at least one pyro-CB which then started other fires down stream.

Milton Speer
Tops were also 12km SW of Delegate (confirmed from Sydney) on Jan 30
associated with pyro generated CB. Thunder and lightning ensued and 8 mm
was recorded at Bendoc SW of Delegate just across the border in Vic.