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Climate Forecasting Group

Lynda Chambers

Contact details

E-mail :l.chambers@BoM.GOV.AU
Fax +61-(0)3-9669-4660
Phone:

Postal Address:: Dr. L. Chambers; Bureau of Meteorology.; BMRC.; GPO Box 1289,; Melbourne, Victoria 3001; Australia

Personal Data:

Education:

PhD Melbourne Univ.,
MSc (Statistics), A.Stat.
Senior Professional Officer B

Interests and Research:

Climate Impacts

South-West Western Australian Climate

Little Penguin Breeding Success

Climate and Waterfowl Abundance

National Ecological Meta-Database

Near Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies as Predictors of Australian Seasonal Rainfall (RR 65)

Related links:

Free Statistical Software Routines STALIB

Additional Statistical Information Statistical Society of Australia

Victorian Ornithological Research Group

Climate Impacts

This is research topic covers a range of projects with the aim of quantifying the impact of climate variability and climate change on Australian fauna and flora, particularly through the use of phenology.
In a major review of climate change and its impact on Australian avifauna, Chambers, Hughes and Weston found that "Relative to the Northern Hemisphere, little is known about the effect of climate change on Southern Hemisphere birds, although the impact could be significant." They reviewed the effects of climate change on birds that had been documented or predicted, with particular reference to Australian Species. "Potential impacts include changes in geographic range, movement patterns, morphology, physiology, abundance, phenology and community composition. The evidence suggests that these changes are already happening, both overseas and in Australia, but more research is needed to determine the extent of these impacts and how to conserve birds in the face of climate change. Management options include promoting adaptation and resilience, intensive management of sensitive species, and improved planning for mitigation techniques and monitoring" (Chambers et al., 2005).

The Climate of south-west Western Australia

The Bureau of Meteorology, together with CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research, Division of Land and Water Research and Division of Mathematical and Information Sciences, are involved in a project to better understand the climate of the south-west of Western Australia. The project is administered and guided by the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI). The focus of the group is on research into climate variability and the development of seasonal forecasting for regions of western and southern Australia affected by the Indian and Southern Oceans and particularly for south western Australia.

Little Penguin Breeding Success

Climate has been known to influence the breeding success of seabirds. This project describes the impact that climate has on Little Penguin breeding success at Phillip Island, Victoria, Australia, and provides forecasts for future breeding seasons. The timing of breeding in Little Penguins was linked to ocean temperatures in Bass Strait in the autumn prior to the breeding season. Cooler ocean temperatures corresponding to later breeding dates. Little Penguins appear to be sensitive to changes in their climate environment and have the potential to act as indicators of climate change.

Chicks Penguin'nEgg PenguinHead

Climate and Waterfowl Abundance

This is a joint project with the Department of Sustainability and Environment. The broad aim of the project is to determine what climatic elements are likely to influence the abundance of waterfowl in southern Victoria, in particular around Western Port. Preliminary results indicate that locally breeding species, such as the Black Swan, are influenced by local climate variables and display a strong seasonal cycle in abundance. The abundance of other species, such as the Grey Teal and White-faced Heron, who had weaker seasonal cycles, had a stronger relationship to broader-scale climate patterns. Understanding interactions between local and broader-scale climate patterns and waterbird abundance will increase our confidence in predictions of population changes under climate change.

National Ecological Meta-Database

The aims of this project are to document existing datasets that have the potential to be used for climate change impact work, particularly in the area of biodiversity. Once set-up a central database would contain details such as a description of the data, who owns the data, and how to obtain access to the data. The actual data would remain with the current owner to encourage greater participation in the scheme.
The existence of metadata of this type will enable us to build upon existing information to gain a greater, and faster, understanding of climate change impacts within Australia. It has the potential to aid in the identification of priority areas for research and monitoring, by identifying (and filling) gaps in knowledge and information, and can be used to improve our understanding of potential climate change impacts on biodiversity.
If you are interested in becoming involved in this project, either as a research partner, a funding body or as a contributor, please contact L.Chambers@bom.gov.au.
More details can be found by clicking here.

Publications:

Pre-1998

Climate Related

Current Refereed Papers

Chambers, L.E., Quin, B., Menkhorst, P., Franklin, D.C., Smales, I. 2008. Climate as a driver for breeding in the Helmeted Honeyeater. Emu 108:15-22.

Chambers, L.E., Keatley, M.R. 2008. Australian bird phenology – a search for climate signals. (in progress).

Cullen, J.M., Chambers, L.E., Dann, P., Coutin, P.C. 2008. Predicting the onset and success of breeding of Little Penguins Eudyptula minor, on Phillip Island from ocean temperatures off south east Australia. (submitted Marine Ecology Progress Series).

Chambers, L.E., Gibbs, H., Weston, M.A., Ehmke, G.C. 2008. Spatial and temporal variation in breeding in Masked Lapwing Vanellus miles in Australia. Emu 108:115-124.

Chambers, L.E., Griffiths, G.M. 2008. The changing nature of temperature extremes in Australia and New Zealand. Aust. Met. Mag. 57:13-35.

Chambers, L.E. 2008. Trends in avian migration timing in south Western Australia and their relationship to climate. Emu 108:1-14.

Chambers, L.E. 2007. Observed and projected climate change impacts. State of Australia's Birds 2007: Birds in a Changing Climate. Supplement to Wingspan 17(4).

Chambers, L.E., Gibbs, H., Weston, M.A., Ehmke, G.C. 2007. Climate change and Masked Lapwings: the difficulties of detecting and attributing change. State of Australia's Birds 2007: Birds in a Changing Climate. Supplement to Wingspan 17(4).

Chambers, L.E., Webber, E, Mavromatis, A, Keatley, M.R., Hughes, L. 2007. National Ecological Meta Database. B.M.R.C. Research Report No. 132, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne.

Chambers, L.E. 2006. The heat is on. Wingspan 16(4):28-29.

Chambers, L.E. 2006. Associations between climate change and species in Australia BAMS 87(2):201-206.

Chambers, L.E., and Loyn, R.H. 2006. The influence of climate on numbers of three waterbird species in Western Port, Victoria, 1973-2002. International Journal of Biometeorology 50:292-304.

Chambers, L.E., Hughes, L., and Weston, M.A. 2005. Climate Change and its impact on Australia's avifauna. Emu 105: 1-20.

Li, F., Chambers, L.E., and Nicholls, N. 2005. Relationships between rainfall in the southwest of Western Australia and near-global patterns of sea surface temperature and mean sea level pressure variability. Aust. Met. Mag. 54:23-33.

Griffiths, G.M., Chambers, L.E., Haylock, M.R., et al. 2005. Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia-Pacific region. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1301-1330.

Yang, H.C., Chambers, L.E., and Huggins, R.M. 2005. A seasonal decompostion of the estimated size of a penguin population at Phillip Island, Australia. Australian Journal of Zoology 53(2): 111-115.

Chambers, L.E. 2005. Migration dates at Eyre Bird Observatory: Links with climate change? Climate Research 29: 157-165.

Nicholls, N., Baek, H.-J., Gosai, A., Chambers, L.E., et al. 2005. The El Nino - Southern Oscillation and daily temperature extremes in east Asia and the west Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters 32: L16714

Power, S., Chambers, L.E., and Haylock, M.R. 2005. The asymmetric response of Australian rainfall to the El Nino - Southern Oscillation. (submitted to Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society)

Dann, P., Carron, M., Chambers, B., Chambers, L.E., et al. 2005. Longevity in Little Penguins Eudyptula minor. Marine Ornithology 33:71-72.

Chambers, L.E., Cullen, M.J., Coutin, P.C., Dann, P. 2005. Ocean temperatures and onset of Little Penguin breeding. (Conference Abstract) New Zealand Journal of Zoology 32: 263-271

Page, C.M., Nicholls, N., Plummer, N., Trewin, B.C., Manton, M.J., Alexander, L., Chambers, L.E., et al. 2004. Data rescue in the South-east Asia and South Pacific region: Challenges and Opportunities. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 85(10):1483-1489.

Yang, H.C., Chambers, L.E., and Huggins, R.M. 2004. A seasonal decompostion of the estimated size of a penguin population at Phillip Island, Australia. Technical Report 2003-4. Department of Statistical Science, La Trobe University.

Chambers, L.E. 2004. The impact of climate on Little Penguin breeding success, BMRC Research Report No. 100, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

Chambers, L.E. 2004. Delayed breeding in Little Penguins - Evidence of Climate Change? Aust. Met. Mag. 53: 13-19.

Chambers, L.E. 2003. South Australian rainfall variability and trends, BMRC Research Report No. 92, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

Chambers, L.E., Li, F., Nicholls, N. 2002.Seasonal climate forecasts for south-west Western Australia, BMRC Research Report No. 86, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

Nicholls, N., Chambers, L., Drosdowsky, W. 2001. Climate variability and predictability for south-west Western Australia. Pp 1-52 in 'Towards Understanding Climate Variability in south western Australia', Research reports on the Second Research Phase of the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative, IOCI October 2001.

Chambers, L.E. 2001. Classifying rainfall districts: a south Western Australian study, Aust. Met. Mag. 50: 91-103.

Drosdowsky, W., Chambers, L.E. 2001. Near global sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors of Australian seasonal rainfall, J. Climate 14:1677-1687.

Manton, M.J., Della-Marta, P.M., Haylock, M.R., Chambers, L.E., et al. 2001. Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961-1998, Int. J. Climatology 21:269-284.

Frederiksen, C.S., Zhang, H., Balgovind, R., Nicholls, N., Drosdowsky, W., Chambers, L.E. 2001. Dynamical seasonal forecasts during the 1997/98 ENSO using persisted SSTAs, J. Climate 14: 2675-2695.

Chambers, L.E., Drosdowsky, W. 1999. Australian seasonal rainfall prediction using near global sea surface temperatures. AMOS Bulletin 12(3):51-55.

Nicholls, N., Chambers, L., Haylock, M., Frederiksen, C., Jones, D., Drosdowsky, W. 1999. Climate variability and predictability for south-west Western Australia. Pp 1-52 in 'Towards Understanding Climate Variability in south western Australia', Research reports on the First Phase of the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative, October 1999.

Chambers, L.E. 1999. Is the south-west of Western Australia drying out? Climag Issue 2:10-11.

Drosdowsky, W., Chambers, L.E. 1998. Near global sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors of Australian seasonal rainfall, BMRC Research Report No. 65, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia.

Wildlife Related

Chambers, L.E. 2006. Locomotion in the Eastern Rosella: I. Diurnal pattern of movement. Eclectus 16-17: 4-10.

Chambers, L.E. 2006. Locomotion in the Eastern Rosella: II. Movement speeds and census implications. Eclectus 16-17: 10-17.

Chambers, L.E. 2003. Handedness in Parrots . Eclectus 13:3-12.

Chambers, L.E. 2002. Final Report of the VORG Survey into Handedness in Parrots. VORG Notes 37(2):1-50.

Chambers, L.E. 2002. Displacement movements and foraging strategies in birds. Australasian Society for the Study of Animal Behaviour, 29th Annual Conference, University of Melbourne, 3-6 April 2002.

Chambers, L.E. 2001. Population mobility and (its effects on) vertebrate population estimation (Thesis Extract). Eclectus 11:14-15.

Chambers, L.E. 2001. Birds and Window Collisions. VORG Notes 36(1):4-11.

Chambers, L.E. 2000. Population mobility and its effects on vertebrate population estimation. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Melbourne, Australia.

Chambers, L.E. 2000.The (daily) life of birds: modelling bird movement. 15th Australian Statistical Conference, 3-7 July, 2000, Adelaide, South Australia.

Chambers, L.E. 2000. The (daily) life of birds: modelling bird movement. The 2nd Southern Hemisphere Ornithological Congress, 27 June - 2 July, 2000, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia.

Chambers, L.E. 1999. Modelling bird movement: two case studies. Biometrics 99, 1-16 December 1999, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.

Chambers, L.E. 1999. The daily life of birds: modelling bird movement. Biometrics 99, 1-16 December 1999, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.

Chambers, L.E. 1998. Handedness in Parrots - Annual Report 97/98. VORG Notes 33(2):34-38.

Chambers, L.E. 1998. Reproductive behaviour in Eastern Rosellas. VORG Notes 33(2):39.

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