Near-Global Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Rainfall
Alexis Donald, Holger Meinke, Brendan Power, Aline de H.N. Maia,
Matthew C. Wheeler, Neil White, Roger C. Stone, and Joachim Ribbe.
2006: Geophy. Res. Lett., 33, L09704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025155.
Abstract
The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.