Time-longitude (Hovmoller) section of two OLR anomaly products averaged from 7.5S to 7.5N. For times before and up to the present (as indicated by the horizontal solid line), the shading is for the actual observed daily OLR anomalies, smoothed in time by a 3-day running-mean, and smoothed in space by a R21 spherical spectral truncation. These are anomalies with respect to the long-term mean and annual cycle. Contoured are the anomalies of the MJO "mode", defined by the blue boxes of the wavenumber-frequency domain defined in Fig. 1a and 1b. Note the close correspondence between the solid (negative) contours of the filtered field and the blue (negative) shading of the observed anomalies. Below the horizontal solid line is the forecast of the MJO OLR field out to a forecast of 14 days.