Annual Report: Publications 2003/2004

Journal articles, books and chapters in books

Alves, O., Balmaseda, M.A., Anderson, D. and Stockdale, T. 2004. Sensitivity of dynamical seasonal forecasts to ocean initial conditions. Q. Jl R. met. Soc., 130, 647-67.

Anderson-Berry, L., Keenan, T., Bally, J., Pielke, R., Leigh, R. and King, D. 2004. The societal, social, and economic impacts of the World Weather Research Programme Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project (WWRP S2000 FDP). Weath. Forecasting, 19, 168-78.

Bally, J. 2004. The Thunderstorm Interactive Forecast System: Turning automated thunderstorm tracks into severe weather warnings. Weath. Forecasting, Vol. 19, 64-72.

Barker, H.W., Stephens, G.L., Partain, P.T., Bergman, J.W., Bonnel, B., Campana, K., Clothiaux, E.E., Clough, S., Cusack, S., Delamere, J., Edwards, J., Evans, K.F., Fouquart, Y., Freidenreich, S., Galin, V., Hou, Y., Kato, S., Li, J., Mlawer, E., Morcrette, J.-J., O'Hirok, W.O., Raisanen, P., Ramaswamy, P., Ritter, B., Rozanov, E., Schlesinger, M., Shibata, K., Sporyshev, P., Sun, Z., Wendisch, M., Wood, N. and Yang, F. 2003. Assessing 1D atmospheric solar radiative transfer models: interpretation and handling of unresolved clouds. J. Climate, 16, 2676-99.

Bowler, N.E.H. Pierce, C.E. and Seed, A. 2004. Development of a precipitation nowcasting algorithm based upon optical flow techniques. J. Hydrology, 288, 74-91.

Brassington, G.B. 2004. Fourth-order, conservative, control-volume finite-differences for boundary cells. J. Numerical Heat Transfer Part B, 45, 449-74.

Chambers, L.E. 2004. Delayed breeding in Little Penguins – evidence of climate change? Aust. Met. Mag. 53, 13-19.

Colman, R. 2003. Seasonal contributions to climate feedbacks. Climate Dynamics, 20, 825-41.

Colman, R. 2003. A comparison of climate feedbacks in general circulation models. Climate Dynamics, 20, 865-73.

Comstock, J.M. and Jakob, C. 2004. Evaluation of tropical cirrus cloud properties derived from ECMWF model output and ground based measurements over Nauru Island. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L10106, doi:10.1029/2004GL019539.

Cope, M. E., Hess, G. D., Lee, S., Tory, K., Azzi, M., Carras, J., Lilley, W., Manins, P. C., Nelson, P., Ng, L., Puri, K., Wong, N., Walsh, S. and Young, M. 2004. The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part I: Project description and early outcomes. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 649-62.

Drosdowsky, W. and Zhang, H. 2003. Verification of spatial fields. Chapter 6 in Forecast Verification – A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science. I.T. Jolliffe and D.B. Stephenson (Eds). Wiley. 254pp.

Ebert, E.E., Damrath, U., Wergen, W. and Baldwin, M.E. 2003. The WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 481-92.

Ebert, E.E., Damrath, U., Wergen, W. and Baldwin, M.E. 2003. Supplement to the WGNE assessment of short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 492.

Ebert, E.E., Wilson, L.J., Brown, B.G., Nurmi, P., Brooks, H.E., Bally, J. and Jaeneke, M. 2004. Verification of nowcasts from the WWRP Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project. Weath. Forecasting, 19, 73-96.

Fox, N.I., Webb, R., Bally, J., Sleigh, M.W., Pierce, C.E., Sills, D.M.L., Joe, P.I., Wilson, J. and Collier, C.G. 2004. The impact of advanced nowcasting systems on severe weather warning during the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: 3 November 2000. Weath. Forecasting, 19, 97-114.

Frederiksen, C.S., Kariko, A.P. and Zheng, X. 2003. A technique for extracting potentially predictable patterns from climate data. ANZIAM J., 44(E):C160-C179.

Frederiksen, C.S. and Zheng, X. 2004. A method for studying the influence of intra-seasonal variability on the inter-annual variability of climate fields. ANZIAM J., 45(E):C378-C390.

Garratt, J.R. and Hess, G.D. 2003. Neutrally stratified boundary layer. In: Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences, edited by J.R. Holton, J.A. Curry and J.A. Pyle, Academic Press, UK pp 262-71.

Gies, R., Roy, C., Javorniczky, J., Henderson, S., Lemus-Deschamps, L. and Driscoll, C. 2004. Global Solar UV Index: Australian measurements, forecasts and comparison with the UK. Photochemistry and Photobiology, 79, 32-9.

Grainger, S. and Karoly, D.J. 2003. A transport model study of the breakup of the Antarctic ozone hole in November 2000. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1368, doi:10.1029/2002GL016494.

Hendon, H.H. 2003. Indonesian rainfall variability: Impacts of ENSO and local air–sea interaction. J. Climate, 16, 1775–90.

Hess, G.D. 2004. The planetary boundary layer, capped by an inversion: extension to baroclinic and stable conditions. Aust. Met. Mag., 53, 95-101.

Hess, G.D. 2004. The neutral, barotropic planetary boundary layer, capped by a low-level inversion. Boundary-Layer Meteor., 110, 319-55.

Hess, G. D., Tory, K. J., Cope, M. E., Lee, S., Puri, K., Manins, P. C. and Young, M. 2004. The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part II: Case study of a Sydney 7-day photochemical smog event. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 663-79.

Jakob, C. 2003. An improved strategy for the evaluation of clouds parameterizations in GCMs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1387-1401.

Jakob, C. and Tselioudis, G. 2003. Objective identification of cloud regimes in the Tropical Western Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2082-85.

Jakob, C. and Siebesma, A.P. 2003. A new subcloud model for mass-flux convection schemes: Influence on triggering, updraft properties, and model climate. Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 2765-78.

Jakob, C., Pincus, R., Hannay, C., and Xu, K-M. 2004. Use of cloud radar observations for model evaluation: A probabilistic approach. J. Geophys. Res., 109, No. D3, D03202, 10.1029/2003JD003473.

Joe, P. and May, P.T. 2003. Correction of dual PRF velocity errors for operational doppler weather radars. J. Atmos. and Oceanic Technol., 20, 429–42.

Joe, P., Burgess, D., Potts, R., Keenan, T., Stumpf, G. and Treloar, A. 2004. The S2K severe weather detection algorithms and their performance. Weath. Forecasting, 19, 43-63.

Jordan, P.W., Seed, A.W. and Weinmann, P.E. 2003. A stochastic model of radar measurement errors in rainfall accumulations at catchment scale. J. Hydrometeor., 4, 841-55.

Karoly D.J., Braganza, K., Stott, P.A, Arblaster, J.M., Meehl, G.A., Broccoli, A.J. and Dixon, K.W. 2003. Detection of a human influence on North American climate. Science, 302, 1200-03.

Keenan, T.D. 2003. Hydrometeor classification with a C-band polarimetric radar. Aust. Met. Mag., 52, 23-31.

Keenan, T., Joe, P., Wilson, J., Collier, C., Golding, B., Burgess, D., May, P., Pierce, C., Bally, J., Crook, A., Seed, A., Sills, D., Berry, L; Potts, R., Bell, I., Fox, N., Ebert, E., Eilts, M., O'Loughlin, K., Webb, R., Carbone, R., Browning, K., Roberts, R. and Mueller, C. 2003. The Sydney 2000 World Weather Research Programme Forecast Demonstration Project: Overview and current status. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 84, 1041-54.

Langematz, U., Kunze, M., Kruger, K., Labitzke, K. and Roff, G.L. 2003. Thermal and dynamical changes of the stratosphere since 1979 and their link to ozone and CO2 changes. J. Geophys. Res. (D Atmos.), 108, no. D1, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002069.

Le Marshall, J., Leslie, L.M., Seecamp, R. and Rea, A. 2003. High resolution space-based wind observations estimation and application - a review. Mausam, 54, 39-50.

Le Marshall, J., Rea, A., Leslie, L., Seecamp, R. and Dunn, M. 2004. Error characterization of atmospheric motion vectors. Aust. Met. Mag., 53, 123-31.

Lucas, C., MacKinnon, A.D., Vincent, R.A., May, P.T. 2004. Raindrop size distribution retrievals from a VHF boundary layer profiler. J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., 21, 45-60.

McBride, J.L., Haylock, M.R. and Nicholls, N. 2003. Relationships between the maritime continent heat source and the El Niño - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. J. Climate, 16, 2905-14.

May, P.T., Lucas, C., Lataitis, R. and Reid, I.M. 2003. On the use of 50-MHz RASS in thunderstorms. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 20, 936-43.

May, P.T., Keenan, T.D., Potts, R., Wilson, J.W., Webb, R., Treloar, A., Spark, E., Lawrence, S., Ebert, E., Bally, J. and Joe, P. 2004. The Sydney 2000 Olympic Games Forecast Demonstration Project: Forecasting, Observing Network Infrastructure, and Data Processing Issues. Weath. Forecasting, 19, 115-30.

Meehl, G.A., Arblaster, J.M. and Loschnigg, J. 2003. Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamical Processes in the Tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans and the TBO. J. Climate, 16, 2138-58.

Meehl, G.A. and Arblaster, J.M. 2003. Mechanisms for projected future changes in south Asian monsoon precipitation. Clim. Dyn., 21, 659-75.

Meehl, G.A., Washington, W.M., Arblaster, J.M. and Hu, A. 2004. Factors affecting climate sensitivity in global coupled models. J. Climate, 17, 1584-96.

Mills, G.A. and Pendlebury, S. 2003. Processes leading to a severe wind-shear incident at Hobart Airport. Aust. Met. Mag., 52, 171-88.

Nicholls, N. 2003. El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. In: Encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences, edited by J.R. Holton, J.A. Curry and J.A. Pyle, Academic Press, UK pp 713-71.

Nicholls, N. 2003. El Niño in Australia. Chapter 43 in Handbook of Weather, Climate, and Water, T. D. Potter and B. R. Colman (eds.), Wiley, 966 pp.

Nicholls, N. 2003. Continued anomalous warming in Australia. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1370. doi: 10.1029/2003GL017037.

Nicholls, N. 2004. The changing nature of Australian droughts. Climatic Change, 63, 323-36.

Pierce, C.E., Ebert, E., Seed, A.W., Sleigh, M., Collier, C.G., Fox, N.I., Donaldson, N., Wilson, J.W., Roberts, R. and Mueller, C.K. 2004. The nowcasting of precipitation during Sydney 2000: An appraisal of the QPF algorithms. Weath. Forecasting, 19, 7-21.

Pitman, A.J. and McAvaney, B.J. 2004. Impact of varying the complexity of the land surface energy budget on the sensitivity of the Australian climate to increasing carbon dioxide. Climate Research, 25, 191-203.

Pitman, A.J., McAvaney, B.J., Bagnoud, N. and Cheminat B. 2004. Are inter-model differences in AMIP-II near surface air temperature means and extremes explained by land surface energy balance complexity? Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L05205, doi:10.1029/2003GL019233.

Santer, B.D., Wehner, M.F., Wigley, T.M.L., Sausen, R., Meehl, G.A., Taylor, K.E., Ammann, C., Arblaster, J.M., Washington, W.M., Boyle, J.S. and Bruggemann, W. 2003: Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent to recent tropopause height changes. Science, 301, 479-83.

Schulz, E.W. and Sanderson, B.G. 2004. Stationarity of turbulence in light winds during the Maritime Continent Thunderstorm Experiment. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 111, 523-41.

Seaman, R.S. 2004. Fictitious pressure gradients arising from reductions to sea level over central Australia. Aust. Met. Mag., 53, 103-10.

Seaman, R. and Hart, T. 2003. The history of PAOBs in the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Aust. Met. Mag., 52, 241-50.

Seed, A.W. 2003. A dynamic and spatial scaling approach to advection forecasting. J. Appl. Meteorol., 42, 381-88.

Shinoda, T., Alexander, M.A. and Hendon, H.H. 2004. Remote response of the Indian Ocean to interannual SST variations in the Tropical Pacific. Jnl Climate, 17, 362-72.

Shinoda, T., Hendon, H.H. and Alexander, M.A. 2004. Surface and subsurface dipole variability in the Indian Ocean and its relation with ENSO. Deep Sea Research, 55, 619-35.

Timbal, B., Dufour, A. and McAvaney, B. 2003. An estimate of future climate change for western France using a statistical downscaling technique. Climate Dyn., 20, 807-23.

Timbal, B. 2004. Southwest Australia past and future rainfall trends. Climate Research, 26, 233-49.

Tory, K.J., Cope, M.E., Hess, G.D., Lee, S. and Wong, N. 2003. The use of long-range transport simulations to verify the Australian air quality forecasting system.

Aust. Met. Mag., 52, 229-40.

Tory, K. J. Cope, M. E. Hess, G. D. Lee, S., Puri, K., Manins, P. C. and Wong, N. 2004. The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part III: Case study of a Melbourne 4-day photochemical smog event. J. Appl. Meteor., 43, 680-95.

Tupper, A., Carn, S., Davey, J., Kamada, Y., Potts, R., Prata, F. and Tokuno, M. 2004. An evaluation of volcanic cloud detection techniques during recent significant eruptions in the western ‘Ring of Fire’. Remote Sensing of Environment, 91, 27-46.

Wang, K., Liu, J., Zhou, X., Sparrow, M., Ma, M., Sun, Z. and Jiang, W. 2004. Validation of the MODIS global land surface albedo product using ground measurements in a semidesert region on the Tibetan Plateau. J. Geophys. Res. D. Atmospheres 109 (D5) D05107.

Wheeler, M.C. 2003. Equatorial waves. In: Encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences, edited by J.R. Holton, J.A. Curry and J.A. Pyle, Academic Press, UK pp 2313-25.

Wilson, J.W., Ebert, E.E., Saxen, T.R., Roberts, R.D., Mueller, C.K., Sleigh, M., Pierce, C.E. and Seed, A. 2004. Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: Convective storm nowcasting. Weath. Forecasting, 19, 131-50.

Zhang, H. and Frederiksen, C.S. 2003. Local and non-local impacts of soil moisture initialization on AGCM seasonal forecasts: A model sensitivity study. J Climate, 16, 2117-37.

Zhang, H., McGregor, J. L., Henderson-Sellers, A. and Katzfey, J. J. 2004. Impacts of land surface model complexity on a regional simulation of a tropical synoptic event. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 180-98.

Zheng, X., Sugi, M. and Frederiksen, C.S. 2004. Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of climate simulations with the MRI-JMA AGCM.

J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 82, 1-18.