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Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Greg J. Holland
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre
Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

CHAPTER 3: TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION

CONTENTS

• 3.1 INTRODUCTION
• 3.2   POSITION ANALYSIS
  • 3.2.1 Analysis Pitfalls
  • 3.2.2 Using Aircraft Observations
  • 3.2.3 Using Satellite Observations
  • 3.2.4 Using Radar Observations
  • 3.2.5 Using Surface Observations
  • 3.2.6 Special Observations
  • 3.2.7 Keeping an Operational Track
• 3.3 MOTION FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
  • 3.3.1 Persistence
  • 3.3.2 Climatology
  • 3.3.3 Combined Persistence and Climatology
  • 3.3.4 Determining the Steering Curren
  • 3.3.5 Synoptic Methodst
  • 3.3.6 Satellite Techniques
  • 3.3.7 Expert Systems
  • 3.3.8 Dynamical Methods
  • 3.3.9 Statistical and Statistical/Dynamical Techniques
  • 3.3.10 Strike Probability Forecasts
• 3.4 MAKING THE POSITION FORECAST
  • 3.4.1 Extended Range Forecasts (36-72 hours)
  • 3.4.2 Short Range Forecasts (less than 36 hours) 
• 3.5 VERIFICATION METHODS
  • 3.5.1 Best-Track Preparation
  • 3.5.2 Estimating Forecast Error
  • 3.5.3 The Concept of Forecast Difficulty