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Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

CHAPTER 5: SEASONAL FORECASTING

 William M. Gray

Dept. of Atmospheric Science

Colorado State University

Fort Collins, Colorado, USA 

5. SEASONAL FORECASTING  

CONTENTS

• 5.1 INTRODUCTION
• 5.2 ENSO RELATIONSHIPS WITH SEASONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY
  • 5.2.1 North Atlantic Basin
  • 5.2.2 Eastern North Pacific Basin
  • 5.2.3 Central and Western Pacific Basins
  • 5.2.4 North and South Indian Basins
  • 5.2.5 Australian Region
  • 5.2.6 Summary of ENSO Relationships
• 5.3 TROPICAL CYCLONE MODULATION BY THE QBO
  • 5.3.1 North Atlantic Basin
  • 5.3.2 West Pacific/Australian Region
  • 5.3.3 Summary of QBO Relationships
• 5.4 INTRA-SEASONAL PREDICTION
  • 5.4.1 Clustering of Tropical Cyclones in Time
  • 5.4.2 Indian Rainfall and Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
  • 5.4.3 Other Intra-Seasonal Associations
• 5.5 NORTH ATLANTIC SEASONAL FORECASTS
  • 5.5.1 December Forecast Scheme
  • 5.5.2 June Forecast Scheme
  • 5.5.3 August Forecast Scheme
  • 5.5.4 Discussion

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