Home | About Us | Contacts | Help | Feedback | SEARCH Global | Australia | NSW | Vic. | Qld | WA | SA | Tas. | ACT | NT | Ant. | Weather & Warnings | Hydrology | Climate | Numerical Prediction | About Services | Learn About Meteorology | Registered User Services |

Global Guide
Main Menu

Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting:
CHAPTER 6: OPERATIONAL STRATEGY

6.1 INTRODUCTION

The aim of this chapter is to suggest ways in which to optimise the efficiency of a Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC). Increases in efficiency will come through meteorological agencies developing strategies that make the most effective use of its two most valuable resources, its staff and its technology base. Why, however, should agencies take steps to optimise the efficiency of its tropical cyclone forecasting service? Several points are relevant here.

There are countries in the tropical zone that contain some of the highest population densities in the world, through the whole tropics there has been extraordinary growth in recent years, mainly due to industrial development and tourism. There has not been, however, a correspondingly rapid increase in forecast performance associated with tropical cyclones. Neumann (1981) estimated that track forecast errors are improving (on average) at the rate of about 1% per year. These two points give a perspective of the increasing pressures and expectations being absorbed by cyclone forecasters throughout the world. Meteorological agencies may be able, even in some small ways, to offset the slow pace of improvement in actual forecasting through increases in organisational efficiency.

In many areas of the world today an increasing volume of data is being presented for forecasters to evaluate within a limited time frame. It is certain that this trend will continue in future years as technology (particularly with respect to satellites and communications) develops further. There is an urgent requirement to have data in a form that is readily digestible for forecasters.

There is a need for an efficient and effective evaluation of forecast performance. Without these sorts of performance indicators, it becomes very difficult to assess if a warning service is progressing. More importantly, it is imperative to identify and correct deficiencies in the service. Many offices are not performing this important task because they do not have the human resources or systems in place to do it efficiently.

A meteorological agency will often be judged by its ability to efficiently disseminate warnings. Timeliness in delivery is paramount to credibility, and this makes careful planning of the communications component of a warning service a high priority task.

Figure 1 provides a schematic overview of the processes involved in tropical cyclone forecasting. It can be seen that the steps involved in the total forecasting process are not only those concerning the understanding of scientific principles and the application of techniques. There are other practical issues that a meteorological agency must take into account in order to produce an effective warning service. The following issues need to be fully addressed by a weather service so that it provides the best, most effective warnings possible:

1. Forecast office design and staffing

2. Dealing with incoming communications

3. Workstation technology

4. Forecast dissemination

5. Interacting with the media

6. Pre-season preparation

7. Forecast evaluation

Figure 6.1: Schematic view of the tropical cyclone warning process

During IWTC-II a survey was conducted amongst participants to determine the present situation regarding the distribution of resources in the tropical cyclone forecasting community. Although responses were not received from every participating country, the analysis is considered to be representative of the current situation, and the results of the survey are interspersed through the chapter to help to establish the starting point for further discussion.

Any plans to optimise the efficiency of a TCWC must impinge upon the budget resources and on the existing organisation within the parent weather service. Certainly, the economic factors may be difficult to overcome even if deficiencies in the warning service can be identified. The first step in gaining extra funding however, is to present the administration both documentation of perceived deficiencies and realistic proposals on how to overcome them.

Contents Chapter 6.2