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Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting:
CHAPTER 6: OPERATIONAL STRATEGY

6.10 SUMMARY

The theme of this chapter is building systems - putting together all the knowledge and techniques presented in the preceding chapters and moulding it into an effective tropical cyclone warning service. If the system is not effective, or if it is deficient in any one aspect of tropical cyclones, then the price in life and property could be intolerably high.

Ways and means were discussed in which to optimise efficiency within a TCWC, reasoning that real advances made in the organisation of a forecasting office can compensate to some extent for the relatively slow rate of improvement of forecasting performance.

Modification to the general layout of the forecast office should be considered by weather service managers when any deficiencies are found to exist in this area. If information can be channelled into the forecaster rather than the forecaster having to physically search it out, then economies of time could be made which may then translate into improvements in the warning itself. Occupational health and safety issues also need to be dealt with when planning the layout of a TCWC. Aspects such as the reduction of background noise and the use of appropriate lighting were seen to be important areas for consideration.

Adequate staffing should be made available to cope with a cyclone event. Advantages were seen in the appointment of specialist positions who were capable of concentrating on tropical cyclone issues on a year round basis.

Communications are an integral part of the effective functioning of a TCWC and this was discussed both for incoming data and outgoing warning information. The principle data types were examined and the most effective methods of assimilating these into a TCWC were discussed. The most efficient methods of ingesting data involved the use of workstation technology for most data types. Rapid ingestion of data into a readily accessible form will allow the forecaster more available time to assess the situation. The less rushed a forecaster is, the more likely it is that the forecasting decisions that are made will be better reasoned and the warnings issued will be error-free.

Personal computer-based workstations are rapidly becoming more accessible and more affordable, and will eventually become essential to effective operations. The development of software applications specifically for tropical cyclone forecasting will most likely be at the forefront of any future major advances in TCWC operations.

Warning dissemination is an important issue if a TCWC is to be effective. Dissemination systems should be developed so that warnings are issued in a timely manner and reach the user as quickly as possible. This usually means a minimum of human intervention (the fewer links in the warning chain the better). The main methods of sending warnings were identified and discussed. An issue here was the need for forecasters to become involved directly with the media. Good media skills will pay off through an increase in the credibility of a warning and a better reaction to the warning information by the general public.

A TCWC must be prepared well before the cyclone season begins. For a warning system to work, it must be well understood by everybody involved, including forecasters themselves, counter disaster groups and the general community. Forecasters' briefing sessions should be encouraged within the TCWC. Close liaison should be nurtured with disaster management groups, and the participation by weather service personnel in public education programs is essential. Also, equipment and systems should be fully tested prior to the commencement of the tropical cyclone season.

The importance of routinely verifying tropical cyclone warnings was emphasised. Although it was recognised that manual verification techniques are tedious, the advent of a verification package on a tropical cyclone workstation and running off a database management system made the prospect of routine verification highly realisable.

Finally, an attempt was made to list (generally, and without being region specific) the sort of strategy which should be adhered to by an operational tropical cyclone forecaster. The underlying message was to be systematic in one's personal approach to forecasting and be involved to ensure that the overall warning system is as efficient as possible. The stakes are much too high to be anything else.

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