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Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting:
CHAPTER 6: OPERATIONAL STRATEGY

6.7 PRE-SEASON PREPARATIONS

As part of a TCWC's operational strategy, it is absolutely necessary that there be planning for the coming cyclone season. Forecasters in particular must be ready and waiting for the first active episode in the season rather than merely to react to events as they unfold. Managers should be aware of issues such as systems preparedness, staff preparedness and public education, prior to the start of the season.

6.7.1 TCWC Systems Preparedness

It is important that every piece of equipment that is needed to make a TCWC functional works. This will require a systematic checking and monitoring programme which should also be carefully costed and incorporated into the weather service's annual budget. The following points are noteworthy in a TCWC pre-season schedule:

1. There is an operational plan which is both effective and current. If any deficiencies are identified in the cyclone warning system, then the plan should be amended to correct these;
   
2. Data acquisition systems are operative, eg. radars tested, remote AWS serviced, observation sites checked (barometers, hydrometers, anemometers etc), and satellite equipment serviceable;
   
3. All computer systems are operative, eg chart plotters, workstations, etc;
   
4. Warning proformae and office equipment are in adequate supply;
   
5. All communications are tested, eg data in, communication lines out (fax, telex, SSB radio, etc), and trial warning messages sent to ensure the recipients of the warnings are ready and that address lists for warnings are current;
   
6. Contingency plans should be in place (don't forget Murphy's Law, it's very applicable to tropical cyclones (Section 8.2). There needs to be fallback positions in case of major failure of equipment so that some level of service can still be maintained. It helps to ask the question "What if this fails?" for every piece of equipment in the TCWC;
   
7. The cyclone season programme must be adequately funded so that it can work properly, eg extra funds allowed for supplementary observations and payment for staff callouts (if applicable).

6.7.2 Forecast Staff Preparedness

All staff should be completely aware of their individual roles in a cyclone event. Pre-season briefing sessions are an effective means of doing this, although it can present problems when staff are operational shift workers and cannot all make meetings at the same time. Every endeavor should be made to overcome these sorts of problems. The task of ensuring staff preparedness is an important role and emphasises the fact that there should be a designated specialist within the TCWC to accommodate this.

Forecasters should be aware of the office procedures, particularly any new procedures or techniques that have been introduced. Established techniques should be revised (eg Dvorak, formation checklists, motion techniques, storm surge calculation, etc.). The normal or expected performance of the TCWC should be pointed out to forecasters (eg previous seasons' forecast errors) as well as general climatological trends, and tips/rules from the more experienced staff on features that should be watched for in the coming season.

Procedural checklists should also be in place so that TCWC duties are clear and can be worked through systematically in a cyclone event (Fig. 6.3). This can minimise instances where tasks may be forgotten under the pressure of work.

An invaluable means of preparation is the use of training modules, educational videos from experts in various fields, and cyclone "games" (operational simulations of tropical cyclone events) on a personal-computer workstation (Holland et al, 1985). This is a very effective method of overcoming the problems of rotational shift working staff becoming familiar with procedures and techniques.

Support staff must also be aware of their duties in a cyclone event. Check lists should be prepared for all staff so that the performance of peripheral tasks is not neglected or forgotten, to the detriment of overall operations.

6.7.3 Public Education Programme

A warning service can never be effective unless the warning recipients understand what is being said and react appropriately. It is essential, therefore, to embark on a campaign of public education and awareness to help overcome public ignorance of tropical cyclones. Deficiencies in this area make it so much harder to operate in a tropical cyclone environment and can be the root cause of criticism after the threat has passed. Put another way, a weather service can achieve a marked increase in its value to the community even though its actual forecasting skill has remained unchanged, just by undertaking to raise the level of awareness of tropical cyclones.

A weather service may be able to conduct a public education programme on its own but it is usually made more effective if it can be achieved in collaboration with the country's counter disaster organisations. Senior personnel should be closely involved in the public education programme. A cyclone education campaign is valuable in the following ways:

• It presents a face for the public to associate with and to focus on so that the weather service is not seen as just an anonymous organisation from which impersonal information issues;
  
• It lets weather service people tell the public the risks involved with tropical cyclones, what a cyclone is, how a cyclone forms, how it can behave, and the problems involved in forecasting tropical cyclones;
  
• It can acquaint people with how a TCWC operates; how it detects and tracks cyclones and how it puts a warning together;
  
• It can try to curtail complacency, particularly in areas that have not been seriously affected for some time or where there is a transient population;
  
• It should have a strong bias towards local counter-disaster groups so that their key people are well informed about cyclones and TCWC operations.
  

Contents Chapter 6.8