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Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

"Then fiery clouds collect in thick masses; the thunder sounds deep and heavy. Rainbows appear, now forming an unbroken curve and again separating, and the ends of the bow dip into the sea. The sea sends back a bellowing sound, and boils with angry surges; the loose rock dash against each other, and detached sea-weed covers the water; there is a thick, murky atmosphere; the water fowl fly about affrighted; the trees and leaves bend to the south - the typhoon has commenced."

S. Wells Williams (1883)

Chief Editor: Greg J. Holland
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre. Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Chapter 1 Global Overview 1.1 INTRODUCTION 1.2 THE GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING NETWORK 1.3 A GLOBAL CLIMATOLOGY	Charles J. Neumann Science Applications International Corporation Miami, Florida, USA
Chapter 2. Tropical Cyclone Structure 2.1 INTRODUCTION 2.2 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 2.3 TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY 2.4 OUTER STRUCTURE 2.5 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION 2.6 RAINFALL APPENDIX:	Robert T. Merrill CIMSS, University of Wisconsin-Madison Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Chapter 3. Tropical Cyclone Motion 3.1 INTRODUCTION 3.2 POSITION ANALYSIS 3.3 MOTION FORECASTING TECHNIQUES 3.4 MAKING THE POSITION FORECAST 3.5 VERIFICATION METHODS	Greg J. Holland Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Chapter 4. The Habitation Layer 4.1 INTRODUCTION 4.2 STORM SURGES 4.3 SEA STATE (WIND WAVES) low res. figs. available	Chester P. Jelesnianski NOAA/NWS Silver Spring, Maryland, USA
Chapter 5. Seasonal Forecasting 5.1 INTRODUCTION 5.2 ENSO RELATIONSHIPS WITH SEASONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY 5.3 TROPICAL CYCLONE MODULATION BY THE QBO 5.4 INTRA-SEASONAL PREDICTION 5.5 NORTH ATLANTIC SEASONAL FORECASTS	William M. Gray Department of Atmospheric Sciences Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
Chapter 6. Operational Strategy 6.1 INTRODUCTION 6.2 FORECAST OFFICE DESIGN 6.3 COMMUNICATIONS: THE RECEPTION OF DATA 6.4 WORKSTATIONS 6.5 FORECAST DISSEMINATION 6.6 INTERACTING WITH THE MEDIA 6.7 PRE-SEASON PREPARATIONS 6.8 PERFORMANCE VALIDATION 6.9 A FORECASTER'S OPERATIONAL STRATEGY 6.10 SUMMARY	Gary R. Foley Regional Office and Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Western Australia
Chapter 7. Warning Strategies 7.1 INTRODUCTION 7.2 THE NATURE OF WARNING AND RESPONSE 7.3 OPERATIONAL STRATEGIES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE - WARNING AND RESPONSE SYSTEMS 7.4 CONSTRAINTS WHICH CHALLENGE WARNING STRATEGIES 7.5 HAZARD, VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT 7.6 WORKING WARNING AND RESPONSE STRATEGIES: THE PHILIPPINES EXAMPLE APPENDIX: THE PAGASA PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL SYSTEM	Robert L. Southern R. L. Southern and Associates Perth, Western Australia
Chapter 8. Numerical Track Prediction Models 8.1 INTRODUCTION 8.2 OVERVIEW OF NUMERICAL MODEL METHODS 8.3 OPERATIONAL NUMERICAL MODELS	Kamal Puri and Greg J. Holland Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
Chapter 9. Ready Reconer 9.1 LIST OF ACRONYMS 9.2 GLOSSARY 9.3 UNIT CONVERSION 9.4 BEAUFORT SCALE 9.5 USEFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE PARAMETERS 9.6 USEFUL CONSTANTS 9.7 DERIVED PARAMETERS 9.8 TROPICAL CYCLONE RECORDS 9.9 TRIVIA CORNER	Greg J. Holland Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Acknowledgements:

A substantial basis for the Guide has been the materials prepared by participants in the first two International Workshops on Tropical Cyclones. In addition to WMO resources, the United Nations Development Program, the US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, the Australian International Development Assistance Bureau and others provided support for these workshops. Each of the major contributors tot he Guide was supported by their organisation. Additional support was provided by the US Office of Naval Research, the US National Science Foundation and by other organizations. The contributions from the many people who made inputs directly to the Guide or through the series and support provided by organizations and agencies are acknowledged with appreciation. Particular thanks are due to:

Greg J. Holland (Australia)
Chief Editor

for his leadership and scientific contributions

other authors (see above)

Geoff Garden (Australia)

for his very detailed review of the whaled manuscript,

and also to:

L. Avila (USA)	T. Kitade (Japan)	A. K. Sen Sarma (India)
J. T. Blake (Jamaica)	M. Lawrence (USA)	R. H. Simpson (USA)
K. Emanuel (USA)	G. Le Goff (France)	C. Velden (USA)
G. Garden (Australia)	G. S. Mandal (India)	F. Wells (USA)
G. Guard (USA)	S. Raghavan (India)	F. Woodcock (Australia)

for reviews and contribution, and ocean basin representatives:

(North Atlantic)	R. C. Sheets (USA)
(Eastern North Pacific)	J. Jarrell (USA)
(Western North Pacific)	Dong K. (China)
(North Indian)	G. S. Mandal (India)
(South-West Indian)	P-Y. Lemee (France)
South-East Indian/Australian)	K. Murphy (Australia)
(South-West Pacific)	F. Woodcock (Australia)

email contact for comments and errors: cyclone

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