Weather Forecasting Group

Bushfire CRC Program A2.1

Fire Weather - Fire Danger

Accurate fire weather forecasts can make all the difference to a community or management agency preparing for bushfire. This project aims to improve the operational utility of these forecasts and outlooks, by providing better knowledge and understanding of wind, temperature and humidity structures and distributions. The goal is that fire forecasts will be improved on very short term, short to medium term and seasonal time-scales. It also aims to facilitate the development of improved forecast products.

The research and development will link with research, communication and education activities of the Bushfire CRC, so that outcomes will include enhanced capability of the community and fire authorities to prepare for adverse fire weather.

There are three inter–related components to this project:

• a. Very short range prediction: Fire weather forecasting in support of firefighting operations needs the accurate prediction of wind changes and wind behaviour. There is a requirement to link the latest numerical weather prediction model guidance to recent observations. This should produce “nowcasts”, utilising the strengths of the latest observations and mesoscale numerical forecasts.
   
• b. Short-medium range prediction: The 12–hour to several day forecasts available from the mesoscale, regional scale, and global numerical weather prediction models allow the prediction of regional scale conditions likely to lead to increased fire danger. These would be expected to assist incident controllers in developing more effective strategies to control fires. While wind flow structures are important, humidity forecasts will be a focus of considerable effort. (This aspect is being explored in conjunction with the Bushfire Handbook project).
   
• c. Seasonal weather: The first step in this project will be to develop a consistent historical dataset of atmospheric humidity and, possibly, wind strength at locations in fire–prevalent areas. These data will be combined with existing high-quality historical temperature and rainfall records using a standard fire danger index. The possibility of using the Bureau’s seasonal forecast systems to predict seasonal fire danger will be investigated. Also, the historical record of fire danger will also be examined to determine the impact of climate change.