Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions
Issued on Wednesday 1 February 2012 | Product Code IDCKGLM000
La Niña conditions steady
Summary
As detailed in the ENSO Wrap-Up, the La Niña event continues over the tropical Pacific with indicators generally remaining fairly steady over the last fortnight. Parts of the tropical Pacific cooled slightly, reversing the recent weak warming signal. A gradual weakening of the event through autumn would be consistent with previous La Niņa events.
The majority of dynamical models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the La Niña will undergo a gradual decline with all models predicting a warming of tropical Pacific temperatures through the austral autumn and winter months. However, there is a large variation between models as to the speed of the warming, with the ECMWF and JMA models predicting a more rapid transition to neutral conditions and POAMA a much slower warming trend compared to the models.
Model Outlooks
The following table summarises the opinion of National Climate Centre (NCC) climatologists regarding the outputs from various long range forecast models. The model set contains seven reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models that take into account complex physical ocean processes. NCC's interpretation may not necessarily be the same as the organisations producing the model output. You are therefore encouraged to follow the hyperlinks to the various institutions listed in the table.
See About ENSO outlooks for details on the models and a summary of the terms used.
| MODEL / GROUP |
Forecast Start Date | 1-3 MONTHS (Feb 2012 to Apr 2012) |
4-6 MONTHS (May 2012 to Jul 2012) |
|---|---|---|---|
| POAMA Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
1 January | Cool/Neutral | Neutral |
| CFS NCEP (US) |
31 January | Cool/Neutral | Neutral |
|
GloSea UK Met Office |
27 January | Cool/Neutral | Neutral# |
|
System 4 ECMWF (EU) |
1 January | Cool/Neutral | Neutral |
|
GEOS-5 NASA Goddard GMAO (US) |
1 January | Cool | Cool/Neutral |
|
JMA/MRI-CGCM Japan Met. Agency |
1 January | Neutral | Neutral |
|
KMA-SNU Korean Met. Administration |
Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
# Forecast period ends before July.
POAMA Forecasts
The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast on day 1 of each month for the following eight months. The most recent model run predicts NINO3.4, currently cooler than average, will warm very gradually and return to neutral values in the austral autumn to winter months.
The IOD has a limited influence on Australian climate during the summer months. The latest weekly value is 0.
Please Note: The Bureau has moved to a new version of its POAMA model (POAMA-2).
March 2012
The most recent POAMA model run (1 January) predicts the average
NINO3.4 temperature anomaly for March 2012 will be −0.8 °C and the frequency distribution
is as follows:
below −0.8 °C: 56.7% (Cool)
−0.8 °C to +0.8 °C: 43.3% (Neutral)
above +0.8 °C: 0.0% (Warm)
June 2012
For June 2012, the average NINO3.4 temperature anomaly is −0.8 °C and
the frequency distribution is:
below −0.8 °C: 53.3% (Cool)
−0.8 °C to +0.8 °C: 46.7% (Neutral)
above +0.8 °C: 0.0% (Warm)
Similar data for other months can be accessed by following the "POAMA" link in the table above.
Users should exercise caution when interpreting these forecasts and are encouraged to view the actual model outputs by following the web links. Frequent updates of the latest observational data with relevant commentary are available on the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up page.
This survey last updated on the 1st of February 2012.
Next update expected 15th of February 2012.
