|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Product Code: IDCKGLM000
As detailed in our ENSO Wrap-up, more evidence of a developing El Niņo event has emerged in the past month. Sea surface temperatures (SST) over some of the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed to above 1°C above normal, Trade Winds have been weaker than normal and the SOI remains negative at around −2.
All international coupled climate models surveyed here are predicting warming of Pacific Ocean SST in the outlook period and for SST to remain above El Niņo thresholds throughout most of the second half of 2009. Forecasts from one of the models has slower and weaker warming (BCC_CGCM, which may be due to the lower initial SST in these forecasts) than the the other six, but all seven models predict El Niņo conditions being established by the southern spring at the latest. There is now more agreement between the models than one month ago and predictability of ENSO conditions is high at this time of year. In this light the probability of an El Niņo event occuring in 2009 is high; a definite increase from one month ago.
The following table summarizes the opinion of National Climate Centre climatologists regarding the outputs from various forecast models. The model set contains seven reputable ocean or coupled ocean/atmosphere climate models that take into account complex physical ocean processes. NCC's interpretation may not necessarily be the same as the organisations producing the model output. You are therefore encouraged to follow the hyperlinks to the various institutions listed in the table.
See About ENSO outlooks for details on the models and a summary of the terms used.
| MODEL / GROUP |
Forecast Start Date | 2-4 MONTHS (Aug to Oct 09) |
5-7 MONTHS (Nov 09 to Jan 10) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
POAMA (run at Bureau of Met) |
30 May - 28 June | Warm | Warm |
|
System 3 ECMWF |
01 June | Warm | Warm # |
|
GloSea * UK Met Office |
1 June | Warm | Not Available |
|
CFS NCEP |
18 - 27 June | Warm | Warm |
|
CGCMv1 GMAO/NASA |
June | Warm | Warm |
|
BCC_CGCM BCC/CMA |
24 - 31 May | Neutral | Warm |
|
JMA-CGCM02 Japan Met. Agency |
May | Warm | Warm # |
# Model forecast is run only until the end of December
* Note that this page requires a password, freely available from UK Met Office
Note that some links above may be updated to more recent forecasts than
listed here.
The POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, generates a new forecast every day for the following eight months starting with the latest observations. The average of the most recent 30 model runs predicts the recent rapid warming to continue across the Pacific throughout the southern winter and for the warming to slow but to peak around mid-summer 2009-10. POAMA is therefore predicting El Niņo conditions to become firmly established and to persist at least until the coming southern hemisphere summer.
While predictability is much lower than for the Pacific Ocean, POAMA is predicting a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) to persist through much of the outlook period, as is the NASA GMAO model, the other model surveyed here for which IOD forecasts are published.
For the 30 runs of POAMA between 30 May and 28 June 2009, the average
NINO3.4 temperature anomaly for SEPTEMBER is +1.4°C and the distribution of
for AUGUST is as follows:
below −0.8°C: 0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 0% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 100% (Warm)
And similarly for DECEMBER 2009 the average NINO3.4 index is +1.8°C and
the distribution is:
below −0.8°C: 0% (Cool)
−0.8°C to +0.8°C: 0% (Neutral)
above +0.8°C: 100% (Warm)
Similar data for other months can be accessed by following the "POAMA" link in the table above.
Users should exercise caution when interpreting these forecasts and are encouraged to view the actual model outputs by following the web links. Frequent updates of the latest observational data with relevant commentary are available on the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up page.
This survey last updated 1 July 2009.
Next update expected late July 2009.
Home | About Us | Learn about Meteorology | Contacts | Search | Help | Feedback Weather and Warnings | Climate | Hydrology | Numerical Prediction | About Services | Registered Users | SILO |
|
© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2009, Bureau of Meteorology (ABN 92 637 533 532) Please note the Copyright Notice and Disclaimer statements relating to the use of the information on this site and our site Privacy and Accessibility statements. Users of these web pages are deemed to have read and accepted the conditions described in the Copyright, Disclaimer, and Privacy statements. Please also note the Acknowledgement notice relating to the use of information on this site. No unsolicited commercial email. |
© Australian Government, Bureau of Meteorology