National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2003, issued 16th July 2003

Rainfall odds mostly neutral for late winter/mid-spring

The Bureau's seasonal rainfall outlook for the late winter to mid-spring period, shows near 50:50 chances across most of the country with no big swings towards wetter or drier conditions across any State or Territory.

For the August to October period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 40 and 60% across most of the country (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of 10 are expected to be wetter than average, with about 5 out of 10 being drier.

probability of exceeding median rainfall - click on the map for a larger version of the map

It should also be noted that August and September are in the heart of the dry season across northern Australia and heavy rain at that time of year is uncommon.

The Bureau's August to October rainfall outlooks have moderate reliability over much of Queensland and the north and east of the NT, but mainly low reliability elsewhere (see background information).

The Outlook probabilities are based on recent Indian and Pacific Ocean temperatures. The tropical Indian Ocean is warmer than average, whilst the Pacific is showing a mixed pattern of warmer and cooler than average. For more detail see the El Niño Wrap-Up. The excess warmth in the Indian Ocean has had the greater influence on the overall pattern of probabilities.

June's value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was –12, five points below the May value of –7. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 13th July was –3.


Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.

The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527, Janita Pahalad on (03) 9669 4859, David Jones on (03) 9669 4085, Rob Nash on (03) 9669 4288.
Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld | NSW | Vic | Tas | SA | WA | NT |

Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
Queensland -(07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666
New South Wales -(02) 9296 1522
Victoria -(03) 9669 4949
Tasmania -(03) 6221 2043
South Australia -(08) 8366 2664
Western Australia -(08) 9263 2222
The Northern Territory -(08) 8920 3813



June 2003 rainfall in historical perspective

April to June 2003 rainfall in historical perspective


Background Information