|National Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for August to October 2003, issued 16th July 2003|
Rainfall odds mostly neutral for late winter/mid-spring
The Bureau's seasonal rainfall outlook for the late winter to mid-spring period, shows near 50:50 chances across most of the country with no big swings towards wetter or drier conditions across any State or Territory.
For the August to October period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 40 and 60% across most of the country (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of 10 are expected to be wetter than average, with about 5 out of 10 being drier.
It should also be noted that August and September are in the heart of the dry season across northern Australia and heavy rain at that time of year is uncommon.
The Outlook probabilities are based on recent Indian and Pacific Ocean temperatures. The tropical Indian Ocean is warmer than average, whilst the Pacific is showing a mixed pattern of warmer and cooler than average. For more detail see the El Niño Wrap-Up. The excess warmth in the Indian Ocean has had the greater influence on the overall pattern of probabilities.
June's value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was 12, five points below the May value of 7. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 13th July was 3.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|The following climate meteorologists in the National Climate Centre can be contacted about this outlook: Grant Beard on (03) 9669 4527, Janita Pahalad on (03) 9669 4859, David Jones on (03) 9669 4085, Rob Nash on (03) 9669 4288.|
|Regional versions of this media release are available: | Qld
Regional commentary is available from the Climate and Consultancy Sections in the Bureau's Regional Offices:
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th AUGUST 2003.