NSW Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for November 2003 to January 2004, issued 16th October 2003

Little guidance for NSW seasonal rainfall

The Bureau's rainfall outlook for the late spring to mid-summer has little in the way of useful guidance for NSW seasonal rainfall.

For the November to January period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 45 and 55% over NSW with no large swing in the odds towards wetter or drier conditions (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 seasons out of 10 are expected to be wetter than average in NSW, with about 5 out of 10 being drier.

probability of exceeding median rainfall - click on the map for a larger version of the map

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During November to January, history shows this influence to be moderate across all but the far western border areas in NSW (see background information).

The tropical Indian Ocean is currently somewhat warmer than average, but has been cooling quite strongly. The Pacific is generally warmer than average, particularly in the west. For more detail see the El Niño Wrap-Up. The recent temperature changes in the Indian Ocean have had the greater influence on the overall pattern of probabilities.

September's value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was –2, the same as that recorded in August. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 13th October was –1.

 

Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Sydney Office: (02) 9296 1522.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13th NOVEMBER 2003.

September 2003 rainfall in historical perspective

July to September 2003 rainfall in historical perspective

 

Background Information