Vic Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for November 2003 to January 2004, issued 16th October 2003

Above average falls more likely in far southern Vic

The Bureau's rainfall outlook for the late spring to mid-summer period shows that above average seasonal falls are more likely in some parts of coastal Victoria. This outlook is largely the result of temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean.

For the November to January period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 60 and 65% near parts of the western and central Victorian coasts (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of 10 are expected to be wetter than average in these parts of the State, with about 4 out of 10 being drier.

probability of exceeding median rainfall - click on the map for a larger version of the map

In remaining parts of Victoria the odds for above average seasonal falls are close to 50:50 with no large swings towards wetter or drier conditions.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During November to January, history shows this influence to be weak to moderate in southern and northeast Victoria, and weak to very weak in the northwest of the State (see background information).

The tropical Indian Ocean is currently somewhat warmer than average, but has been cooling quite strongly. The Pacific is generally warmer than average, particularly in the west. For more detail see the El Niño Wrap-Up. The recent temperature changes in the Indian Ocean are the dominant influence on the overall pattern of probabilities.

September's value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was –2, the same as that recorded in August. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 13th October was –1.


Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.

More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.


September 2003 rainfall in historical perspective

July to September 2003 rainfall in historical perspective


Background Information