NT Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Neutral June quarter rainfall odds in the NT

The Bureau's seasonal rainfall outlook for the June quarter shows a strongly varied pattern in the odds over southern and eastern Australia. However, in the NT the rainfall probabilities are neutral for the three months spanning the end of the wet season and first two months of the dry season. This overall outlook pattern is a result of the combined effects of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the April to June period, the chances of above median rainfall are mainly between 45 and 55% across the Northern Territory (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 5 June quarters out of 10 are expected to be drier than average in the NT, with about 5 out of 10 being wetter.

probability of exceeding median rainfall - click on the map for a larger version of the map

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During the June quarter, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent in patches across the north of the Territory, but only weakly or very weakly consistent over remaining parts of the NT (see background information).

Both the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans remain warmer than average. For more detail see the the El Niño Wrap-Up.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has shown strong month-to-month variations recently, in association with active and inactive phases of the northern Australian monsoon. February's value was +9 following the –12 in January and +10 in December. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th March was +4.


Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.

More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Darwin Office: (08) 8920 3813.


Corresponding temperature outlook

February 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

December 2003 to February 2004 rainfall in historical perspective


Background Information