Qld Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Above average June quarter totals favoured in southeast Qld

The Bureau's seasonal rainfall outlook for the June quarter shows that a wetter than average season is more likely in southeast Queensland. This outlook pattern is mostly a result of above average temperatures in the Indian Ocean.

For the April to June period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 60 and 65% in the southeast of the State (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of 10 are expected to be wetter than average in these areas, with about 4 out of 10 being drier. In other parts of Queensland the chances of above average seasonal totals are in the neutral 40 to 60% range.

probability of exceeding median rainfall - click on the map for a larger version of the map

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During the June quarter, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across southeast Queensland and in patches in the northwest. In remaining parts of Queensland the influence is generally weakly consistent (see background information).

Both the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans remain warmer than average. For more detail see the the El Niño Wrap-Up.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has shown strong month-to-month variations recently, in association with active and inactive phases of the northern Australian monsoon. February's value was +9 following the –12 in January and +10 in December. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th March was +4.

 

Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th APRIL 2004.

Corresponding temperature outlook

February 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

December 2003 to February 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

 

Background Information