SA Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Slow start to the growing season likely in SA

The Bureau's seasonal rainfall outlook for the June quarter shows that a drier than average season is more likely across South Australia. This outlook pattern is a result of the combined effects of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the April to June period, the chances of above median rainfall are below 40% over all of SA apart from the far west and north of the State (see map). The chance of a wetter than average season drops below 30% in central SA. This means that BELOW median falls have a 65 to 75% chance of occurring across most of the agricultural areas. So with climate patterns like the current, about 7 seasons out of 10 are expected to be drier than average, with about 3 out of 10 being wetter.

probability of exceeding median rainfall - click on the map for a larger version of the map

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During the June quarter, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across nearly all of SA (see background information).

Both the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans remain warmer than average. For more detail see the the El Niño Wrap-Up.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has shown strong month-to-month variations recently, in association with active and inactive phases of the northern Australian monsoon. February's value was +9 following the –12 in January and +10 in December. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th March was +4.

 

Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (CDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Adelaide Office: (08) 8366 2664.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th APRIL 2004.

Corresponding temperature outlook

February 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

December 2003 to February 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

 

Background Information