Tas Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for April to June 2004, issued 17th March 2004

Below average June quarter rainfall more likely in Tasmania

The Bureau's seasonal rainfall outlook for the June quarter shows that a drier than average season is more likely across Tasmania. This outlook pattern is a result of the combined effects of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

For the April to June period, the chances of above median rainfall are between 30 and 40% in northern and central Tasmania, and between 40 and 45% in the other parts of the State (see map). This means that BELOW median falls have a 55 to 70% chance of occurring across Tasmania. So with climate patterns like the current, about 6 seasons out of 10 are expected to be drier than average across the State, with about 4 out of 10 being wetter.

probability of exceeding median rainfall - click on the map for a larger version of the map

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During the June quarter, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across the eastern half of Tasmania, but only weakly consistent in the west (see background information).

Both the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans remain warmer than average. For more detail see the the El Niño Wrap-Up.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has shown strong month-to-month variations recently, in association with active and inactive phases of the northern Australian monsoon. February's value was +9 following the –12 in January and +10 in December. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th March was +4.

 

Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Hobart Office: (03) 6221 2043.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19th APRIL 2004.

Corresponding temperature outlook

February 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

December 2003 to February 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

 

Background Information