|Vic Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for Winter 2004, issued 18th May 2004|
Winter rainfall odds neutral in Victoria
The Bureau's winter rainfall outlook for Victoria shows a pattern of neutral odds with no strong swings towards either wetter or drier conditions. This outlook pattern is a result of the combined effects of above average temperatures in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
For the June to August period, the chances of above median rainfall vary from a little over 40% in the northern Mallee to about 50% in East Gippsland (see map). So with climate patterns like the current, about five winters out of ten are expected to be drier than average over the State, with about five out of ten being wetter.
Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During winter, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across parts of central and western Victoria, but generally weakly consistent elsewhere across the State (see background information).
Both the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans remain mostly warmer than average, although the eastern Pacific has cooled. For more detail see the the El Niño Wrap-Up.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards over recent months with an April value of 15, following zero in March and +9 in February. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 15th May was +8.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th JUNE 2004.