|Vic Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for July to September 2004, issued 17th June 2004|
Neutral outlook for Victorian September quarter rainfall
There is a moderate shift in the odds towards above average three-month falls in north Queensland and small parts of southwest WA, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. However, for most of the country, including all of Victoria, the shifts in the odds are too weak to offer any firm guidance as to the most likely outcome for September quarter rainfall.
However, even near average rainfall in the southeast of the country during the coming three months, will only raise the year-to-date total to somewhere near the tenth percentile. In other words, 90% of years would still be wetter.
The current pattern of outlook probabilities has been mostly influenced by recent temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean.
For the July to September period, the chances of above median rainfall are close to 50% across Victoria (see map). So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about five September quarters out of ten are expected to be wetter than average across the State, with about five out of ten being drier.
Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During July to September, history shows this influence to be only weakly consistent across Victoria (see background information).
Both the Indian and tropical Pacific Oceans remain mostly warmer than average, although both cooled between April and May. For more detail see the the El Niño Wrap-Up.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) rebounded strongly in May to a value of +13, 28 points above April's 15. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th June was +7.
Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.
|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EDT) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 13th JULY 2004.