|Vic Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for Spring 2004, issued 17th August 2004|
Dry Spring more likely in northwest Victoria
There is a moderate shift in the odds towards below average spring rainfall in northwest Victoria, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today.
However, due to the poor or very poor start to the southern growing season (April-November), parts of northwest, northern and central Victoria have a less than 20% chance of reaching the total growing seasonal average by the end of November. For more information on the recent dry conditions, see the Drought Statement.
Across northwest Victoria, the chances of above median rainfall for spring are below 40%, So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six spring periods out of ten are expected to be drier than average, with about three or four out of ten being wetter.
In the remaining parts of the State, the chances of above average spring rainfall are close to 50:50.
The current pattern of outlook probabilities is due to recent temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During spring, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across most of Victoria (see background information).
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained significantly negative for the second successive month, with a July value of 7 following the June reading of 14. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 14th August was 12. Consistent with the negative SOI, the central Pacific has been warming over the past few months. However, given historical precedent and the current model guidance, the triggering of an El Niño event during the second half of 2004 is less likely than the persistence of neutral conditions. For more detail see the El Niño Wrap-Up.
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|More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Victorian Regional Office: (03) 9669 4949.|
THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 16th SEPTEMBER 2004.