Increased risk of dry conditions in parts of southern Victoria

There is a moderate shift in the odds towards below average rainfall for the December quarter in parts of southern Victoria, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. For the rest of the State, the chances of accumulating at least average rain over the last three months of 2004 are mostly close to 50%.

Along the West Coast, parts of the Western Plains and in a small area in south-central Victoria, the chances of above median rainfall for the December quarter are between 35 and 40%. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six October to December periods out of ten are expected to be drier than average in these areas, with about four out of ten being wetter.

Furthermore, when looking at the growing season (April-November) as a whole over southern and eastern Australia, widespread below to very much below average falls up to the end of August mean that many places are unlikely to reach their total growing seasonal average by the end of November. The chances of receiving the required rain are below 20% over much of the Mallee, Wimmera and Northern Country. For more information on the recent dry conditions, see the Drought Statement.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities is due to recent temperature patterns in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During the December quarter, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across much of Victoria (see background information).

The chance of a late-developing El Niño event increased over the past month, with several but not all indicators reaching their El Ni˜o thresholds. The mounting evidence includes warming of the central Pacific, reduced Trade Winds in the same area and continued negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which came in at –8 for August. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 13th September was –3.

For routine updates on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the El Niño Wrap-Up.

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THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 19^th OCTOBER 2004.

Corresponding temperature outlook

August 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

June to August 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

• The Bureau's seasonal outlooks are general statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period. The outlooks are based on the statistics of chance (the odds) taken from Australian rainfall/temperatures and sea surface temperature records for the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. They are not, however, categorical predictions about future rainfall, and they are not about rainfall within individual months of the three-month outlook period. The temperature outlooks are for the average maximum and minimum temperatures for the entire three-month outlook period. Information about whether individual days or weeks may be unusually hot or cold, is unavailable.

• This outlook is a summary. More detail is available from the contact people or from SILO (www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/SClimate.shtml).

• Probability outlooks should not be used as if they were categorical forecasts. More on probabilities is contained in the booklet The Seasonal Climate Outlook - What it is and how to use it, available from the National Climate Centre. These outlooks should be used as a tool in risk management and decision making. The benefits accrue from long-term use, say over 10 years. At any given time, the probabilities may seem inaccurate, but taken over several years, the advantages of taking account of the risks should outweigh the disadvantages. For more information on the use of probabilities, farmers could contact their local departments of agriculture or primary industry.

• Model Consistency and Outlook Confidence: Strong consistency means that tests of the model on historical data show a high correlation between the most likely outlook category (above/below median) and the verifying observation (above/below median). In this situation relatively high confidence can be placed in the outlook probabilities. Low consistency means the historical relationship, and therefore outlook confidence, is weak. In the places and seasons where the outlooks are most skilful, the category of the eventual outcome (above or below median) is consistent with the category favoured in the outlook about 75% of the time. In the least skilful areas, the outlooks perform no better than random chance or guessing. The rainfall outlooks perform best in eastern and northern Australia between July and January, but are less useful in autumn and in the west of the continent. The skill at predicting seasonal maximum temperature peaks in early winter and drops off marginally during the second half of the year. The lowest point in skill occurs in early autumn. The skill at predicting seasonal minimum temperature peaks in late autumn and again in mid-spring. There are also two distinct periods when the skill is lowest - namely late summer and mid-winter. However, it must always be remembered that the outlooks are statements of chance or risk. For example, if you were told there was a 50:50 chance of a horse winning a race but it ran second, the original assessment of a 50:50 chance could still have been correct.

• The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is calculated using the barometric pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. The SOI is one indicator of the stage of El Niño or La Niña events in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It is best considered in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures, which form the basis of the outlooks. A moderate to strongly negative SOI (persistently below –10) is usually characteristic of El Niño, which is often associated with below average rainfall over eastern Australia, and a weaker than normal monsoon in the north. A moderate to strongly positive SOI (persistently above +10) is usually characteristic of La Niña, which is often associated with above average rainfall over parts of tropical and eastern Australia, and an earlier than normal start to the northern monsoon season. The Australian impacts of 23 El Niño events since 1900 are summarized on the Bureau's web site (www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/).