Qld Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: probabilities for Summer 2004/2005, issued 19th November 2004

Generally neutral outlook for Queensland summer rainfall

The chances of accumulating at least average summer (Dec-Feb) rain are close to 50% for most of Queensland, the Bureau of Meteorology announced today. The one exception is in an area in the north of the State where there is a moderate shift in the odds towards below average rainfall for summer.

probability of exceeding median rainfall - click on the map for a larger version of the map

Within about 100 to 200 km of Townsville in northern Queensland, the chances of above median rainfall for the December to February period are between 35 and 40%. So in years with ocean patterns like the current, about six summers out of ten are expected to be drier than average in this region, with about four out of ten being wetter.

The current pattern of outlook probabilities is mainly due to above average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

Outlook confidence is related to the influence of Pacific and Indian Ocean temperatures on seasonal rainfall. During summer, history shows this influence to be moderately consistent across scattered areas in Queensland, but over a greater proportion of the State the influence is weakly or very weakly consistent, especially in the northwest (see background information).

Progress towards a late-developing El Niño event has slowed over the past two months, with consistent cloud and wind patterns failing to materialize. The central Pacific remains warmer than average and at levels consistent with El Niño, but the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was only weakly negative, coming in at –4 for October. The approximate SOI for the 30 days ending 16th November was –5.

For routine updates on the latest data relating to El Niño, together with details on what the phenomenon is and how it has affected Australia in the past, see the El Niño Wrap-Up.

 

Click on the map above for a larger version of the map. Use the reload/refresh button to ensure the latest forecast map is displayed.

 
More information on this outlook is available from 9.00am to 5.00pm (EST) Monday to Friday by contacting the Climate and Consultancy section in the Bureau's Brisbane Office: (07) 3239 8669 or (07) 3239 8666.
 

THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED BY 17th DECEMBER 2004.

Corresponding temperature outlook

October 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

August to October 2004 rainfall in historical perspective

 

Background Information